status palsu: KEYAKINAN SEPARUH REALISTIS... seh (4)

SINGAPORE, July 14, 2009 (AFP) -
Singapore's economy grew for the first time in a year in the second quarter, led by the biomedical and electronics sectors, suggesting the city state was emerging from its worst ever recession.

The economy soared 20.4 percent in the three months to June compared with the first three months of the year on a seasonally adjusted annualised basis, the Ministry of Trade and Industry said, while raising its forecast for 2009.

Gross domestic product (GDP) was now expected to contract 4-6 percent for the year from an earlier projection of 6-9 percent, the ministry said, while warning that any recovery would be weak due to the fragile global economy.

It was the first quarter-on-quarter growth in five quarters. Singapore slipped into a recession in the second half of last year after two successive quarters of contraction.

Compared with the previous year, however, output in the June quarter was down 3.7 percent, indicating that the export-driven economy remained weak.

"I guess technically the recession would have ended, the economy is growing again," said David Cohen, an economist with research house Action Economics.

"Growth won't be very strong but it should remain in an upward trajectory," he told AFP.

"The Singapore economy registered a stunning turnaround in the second quarter, much is in line with our expectation," DBS Group said in a research note.

Despite the quarter-on-quarter growth, the trade ministry cautioned that "the outlook for the rest of the year remains largely unchanged -- of a weak recovery susceptible to downside risks."

It noted that rising unemployment and reduced consumer spending in its major export markets like the United States and Europe reflected the continued weakness in the global economy.

Cohen said however he was cheered by the second quarter numbers.

"I think this will be the first in a series of upbeat GDP reports for the second quarter from Asian economies," he said, noting that China and South Korea would also be announcing their growth data in the next two weeks.

"Maybe this will provide some reassurance to the markets which have been jittery in the last few weeks about the sustainability of the recovery. It shows that Asian economies have turned the corner in the second quarter."

mba/bh/jah

status palsu: KEYAKINAN SEPARUH REALISTIS... seh (3)

Boediono: The Man and The Controversy
Senin, 13 Juli 2009 12:09 Redaksi-1
Dibanding calon presiden dan calon wakil presiden yang lain, barangkali tak ada yang sekontroversial sosok Boediono. Ia dituding mengusung paham neoliberalisme yang dianggap merugikan Indonesia.



Pembawaan Boediono memang kalem dan terkesan irit bicara. Bahkan, saat pria kelahiran Jawa Timur, 25 Februari 1943 ini dipilih untuk mendampingi Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) dalam perjuangan mendapatkan mandat rakyat memimpin negara pada pemilihan presiden tahun ini, Boediono masih saja tak banyak bicara. Namun, soal kapabilitas di bidang ekonomi, doktor jebolan Wharton School, Universitas Pennsylvania pada 1979 ini jelas sudah kenyang makan asam garam.

Setahun masa pemerintahan Habibie, Boediono dipercaya sebagai Menteri Perencanaan Pembangunan Nasional/Ketua Bappenas Kabinet Reformasi Pembangunan. Lanjut pada masa pemerintahan Abdurrahman Wahid (2001-2004), ayah dua anak ini menjabat sebagai Menteri Keuangan. Sebelum akhirnya menjabat sebagai Gubernur Bank Indonesia, Boediono pernah memegang tanggung jawab sebagai Direktur I Bank Indonesia Urusan Operasi dan Pengendalian Moneter (1997-1998) dan Direktur III Bank Indonesia Urusan Pengawasan BPR (1996-1997).

Diam-diam menghanyutkan, rasanya istilah tersebut pas untuk menggambarkan sosok Boediono yang tenang, namun banyak melakukan gebrakan sampai-sampai ia mendapat julukan ekonom bertangan dingin. Julukan lainnya adalah The Man To Get The Job Done. Sebagai Menkeu, ia berhasil menyelesaikan Letter of Intent dengan IMF yang telah disepakati sebelumnya serta mempersiapkan pertemuan Paris Club September 2001. Tahun 2003 bersama tim ekonomi Kabinet Gotong Royong ia berhasil membawa bangsa ini lepas dari ketergantungan terhadap IMF. Majalah BusinessWeek (AS), memberi Guru Besar Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Gadjah Mada ini pengakuan sebagai tokoh yang kompeten di posisinya sebagai menteri keuangan. Ia dipandang sebagai salah seorang menteri yang paling berprestasi dalam Kabinet Gotong Royong.




Mengundang Banyak Kontroversi



Kendati demikian, justru pada saat terpilih sebagai calon wakil presiden mendampingi SBY, sosok Boediono mengundang banyak kontroversi. Partai koalisi Partai Demokrat pun sempat mengancam akan menarik kesepakatan koalisinya jika Boediono maju mendampingi SBY, walaupun akhirnya setelah lobi-lobi panjang partai koalisi Demokrat menerima keputusan SBY. Sebagian mengatakan Boediono tidak memiliki kapabilitas politik yang baik, sementara sebagian lain menolak Boediono karena dianggap mengusung paham neoliberalisme, sebuah istilah yang belakangan menjadi populer.





Bagi Boediono menerima tawaran SBY jelas jadi pergumulan hebat. Butuh waktu cukup lama sampai ia bersedia menerima tawaran tersebut. Dalam sebuah kesempatan dialog dengan Forum Bersama Tionghoa Indonesia pada Senin (25/5) Boediono menyampaikan, “Sejak menjadi Menteri sampai jadi Gubernur BI, saya kerap dihadapkan pada situasi harus membuat pilihan. Saya biasa mengikuti arus kehidupan. Demikian pula ketika saya memutuskan untuk mendampingi SBY, saya hanya mengikutinya arus hidup.” Walaupun kalau mau jujur, Boediono mengaku lebih menyenangi berkarya di lingkungan kampus, tempat ia bisa berdiskusi dan berdebat dalam suasana demokratis.





Boediono menegaskan, keputusannya menerima tawaran SBY jelas bukan untuk mengejar kekuasaan apalagi menambah pundi-pundi kekayaan. Suami dari Herawati ini hanya ingin menjalani etape terakhir pengabdiannya untuk memberi yang terbaik bagi bangsa dan negara. Walau itu berarti ia harus lebih mengasah kemampuan politiknya. Oleh karenanya Boediono tidak mau ambil pusing terhadap julukan neolib yang kini dilabelkan padanya. “Dari awal prioritas saya kepentingan nasional kita, apapun yang memberi manfaat itu yang jadi prioritas. Saya tidak peduli dengan label yang diberikan pada saya,” tegasnya.





Menurut Boediono, sejak lama dalam tulisan-tulisannya bersama dengan rekan-rekannya di Universitas Gadjah Mada, ia berusaha untuk menjabarkan implikasi dari sila-sila dalam Pancasila bagi perekonomian bangsa. Oleh sebab itu, tidak mungkin dengan berpegang pada Pancasila, ia lantas mengadopsi yang disebut dengan neolib. “Karena neolib adalah terminologi yang baru,” tandasnya.



Ekonomi Kerakyatan

Dalam pandangannya mengenai ekonomi kerakyatan, Boediono menjelaskan bahwa baginya ekonomi kerakyatan adalah semua kebijakan ekonomi yang bermuara pada peningkatan ekonomi bangsa. “Itulah yang disebut ekonomi kerakyatan,” tandasnya. Baginya, ekonomi kerakyatan tidak hanya masalah koperasi atau UKM dan anti perusahaan besar. Ekonomi kerakyatan adalah apapun yang dilakukan bisa memberikan manfaat terbesar bagi rakyat. Selain mendorong semua kegiatan usaha, termasuk UKM dan koperasi, maka pemerintah diharapkan bisa memberi aturan yang baik supaya keseimbangan antara yang besar dan kecil akan tercapai. “Nah, disinilah peran pemerintah dibutuhkan, jangan sampai yang satu mematikan yang lain,” terangnya.



Lanjut Boediono, ekonomi kerakyatan berarti pula langkah-langkah yang tidak memberi beban pada rumah tangga rakyat miskin yang penghasilannya terbatas, seperti pemberian keringanan biaya pendidikan untuk anaknya, membuat akses lebih murah terhadap jasa kesehatan, membantu biaya transportasi agar tidak terlalu tinggi, atau dengan menstabilkan harga bahan pokok. “Ini bermuara pada meringankan beban rumah tangga rakyat. Ini pula yang disebut ekonomi kerakyatan dan ini bisa dilaksanakan,” urainya.







Krisis Ekonomi Global

Menanggapi krisis ekonomi global, Boediono mengaku belum jelas mendapat gambaran ujung akhirnya. Namun, ia percaya Indonesia sudah

bottoming up bila dilihat dari sisi finansial dan sektor riil. “Sisi finansial sudah melewati fase yang paling parah, uang beredar yang dulu bersembunyi sudah mulai keluar dan negara kita termasuk negara pertama yang mendapat aliran masuk kembali,” paparnya.



Adapun di sisi sektor riil, Boediono mengakui ekornya masih panjang. Penurunan ekonomi dari negara-negara maju seperti Amerika dan Jepang dilihatnya masih akan panjang dan diperkirakan baru akan tumbuh pada 2010 baru akan tumbuh. Namun, Boediono memiliki bayangan dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi tahun ini 4%, maka Indonesia memiliki potensi recovery dengan cepat pada 2010. “Tahun depan kita harapkan akan lebih baik,” pungkasnya.







YOHANA NOVIANTI H.

status palsu: HAM... semoga tidak ada diskriminasi

Melbourne, July 14, 2009 (AFP) -
Australian business confidence has bounced back to its highest level since the global financial crisis, according to a survey released Tuesday.

Confidence rose six points from -2 to +4 in June, the first positive reading since December 2007, the monthly National Australia Bank (NAB) survey found.

A positive reading indicates that optimists outnumber pessimists among the 405 firms surveyed.

NAB chief economist Alan Oster said the rise was accompanied by increased business activity, including sharp improvements in manufacturing, construction and wholesaling.

"Business conditions appear to have rebounded to a level roughly similar to that reported prior to the collapse of (US investment bank) Lehman Brothers in September 2008 and the near global meltdown in activity that ensued," he said.

Oster said businesses had also reported improved profits, which appeared to be having a positive impact on the labour market.

"The survey suggests that the better trading and profits has seen business significantly slow the rate of labour shedding," he said.

Oster said the better-than-expected results stemmed partly from government stimulus packages worth more than 50 billion dollars (38.5 billion US) that have been pumped into the economy since late last year.

But he was also circumspect.

"Overall, we are still very much in the camp that, however welcome the current strength might be, it will not be able to be sustained," he said.

ns/th/pst

status palsu:US$ dan BRIC$...

Jumat, 10 Juli 2009 | 12:45

PERTEMUAN G-8

Negara-Negara G-8 Harus Hadapi Tantangan Emerging Economies


ROMA. Pemimpin dari negara-negara dengan kekuatan ekonomi baru alias emerging economies meminta dengan negara-negara maju agar mereka mendapatkan peran yang lebih besar dalam manajemen perekonomian global. Hal ini menunjukkan bahwa mulai muncul kekuatan atas tekanan Barat secara finansial.

Lima emerging economies yang mengusung hampir separo dari penduduk dunia itu adalah China, India, Brazil, Mexico dan Afrika Selatan. Mereka menantang hegemoni dolar AS, menolak strategi dunia industrial untuk memerangi perubahan iklim dan kini mulai mencari dukungan di pasar global dan institusi-institusi lainnya.

Pemimpin dari lima negara ini merepresentasikan 3 miliar orang di dunia dengan GDP mencapai US$ 7 triliun. Mereka muncul sebagai kekuatan yang bersatu untuk yang ke-lima kalinya dalam pertemuan G-8 sejak pertemuan kelompok ini dibangun pada tahun 1975.

"Apa yang terjadi disini adalah sebuah cerminan realitas. Untuk memerangi kemiskinan, perdagangan, perubahan iklim, apapun yang terjadi secara natural dalam dunia global ini, kita tetap membutuhkan emerging economies ini," tegas Angel Gurria, Secretary-General of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

Sementara itu, delapan negara yang bertemu dalam pertemuan G-8 ini, Jepang, Jerman, Inggris, Prancis, Italia, dan Canada, AS dan Russia, jika disatukan hanya memiliki 880 juta orang dengan GDP total US$ 32 triliun.

Russia, yang bergabung bersama Brazil, India dan China di blok BRIC, melihat pertemuan G-8 ini sebagai "pemanasan" saja. Hal ini ditegaskan oleh Sergei Prikhodko, ajudan President Dmitry Medvedev. "Rasanya terlalu dini untuk menguburkan G-8," katanya.

Kelompok G-5 berniat untuk meminta negara-negara maju untuk mamangkas 50% greenhouse-gas emissions pada tahun 2050. Hanya saja, belum ada target yang bisa didesain hingga pembicaraan mengenai iklim dunia dilakukan pada Desember nanti.

IMF mengatakan, emerging economies yang dipimpin oleh China akan menggelindingkan perekonomian sebesar 4,7% tahun depan; sementara itu negara-negara maju hanya diprediksi akan membiakkan 0,6% saja.



Femi Adi Soempeno Bloomberg

status palsu: US$ is STILL the best

Jumat, 10 Juli 2009 | 15:50

PENGGUNAAN DOLAR

Dolar Akan Tetap Jadi Mata Uang Utama Dunia


L’QUILA. Dalam pertemuan negara kelompok delapan (G-8) kemarin malam, White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs mengatakan dolar akan tetap menjadi mata uang utama dunia.

“Di luar pembicaraan apa pun yang pernah Anda dengar sebelumnya, saya tidak melihat adanya perpindahan dari penggunaan dolar ke mata uang lain,” jelas Gibbs.

Pernyataan Gibbs tersebut merupakan respons dari pertanyaan-pertanyaan yang muncul setelah Presiden Barack Obama mengadakan pertemuan bilateral dengan Presiden Brazil Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva pada pertemuan G-8.

Presiden Rusia Dmitry Medvedev dan pemimpin negara emerging market lainnya telah menyarankan penggunaan mata uang alternatif sebagai cadangan sebagai langkah mengurangi ketergantungan terhadap dolar. Namun, Gibbs mengatakan, isu tersebut tidak menjadi topik pembicaraan selama pertemuan Obama dan Lula berlangsung.

Pertemuan Obama dan Lula mendiskusikan berbagai macam topik seperti perdagangan global, Iran, regulasi finansial dan kudeta terhadap Presiden Honduras Manuel Zelaya.

“Banyak sekali orang yang membicarakan hal itu, namun kami rasa hal itu bukanlah hal yang serius,” jelas US Commerce Secretary Gary Locke.



Barratut Taqiyyah Bloomberg

status palsu: Bye US$, welcome Yuan

12/07/2009 - 11:33
Diversifikasi Dolar AS Untungkan RI
Asteria


(inilah.com/Wirasatria)
INILAH.COM, Jakarta – Wacana menciptakan mata uang internasional alternatif selain dolar AS, menjadi perdebatan menarik di tengah dominasi mata uang AS tersebut. Bagaimana dampaknya terhadap Indonesia?

Penggunaan mata uang alternatif dalam perdagangan dunia dinilai membawa dampak positif bagi Indonesia. Terutama karena membuat cadangan devisa terdiversifikasi sehingga ketergantungan terhadap mata uang kuat, dalam hal ini dolar AS menjadi berkurang.

“Selain itu menjaga stabilitas dan mengurangi risiko volatilitas nilai tukar rupiah,” kata pengamat ekonomi Muslimin Anwar, baru-baru ini. Menurutnya, ide penggunaan mata uang lokal dalam perdagangan dunia akan membantu menjaga stabililitas nilai rupiah.

Nilai transaksi perdagangan maupun pinjam meminjam memang semakin tinggi dan komposisi cadangan devisa dalam mata uang tersebut juga akan meningkat. Isu diversifikasi mata uang internasional ini mengemuka di berbagai pertemuan internasional.

Seperti pertemuan G-8 (kelompok negara industrialisasi) pada 8-10 Juli di Italia dan pada saat KTT BRIC (Brasil, Rusia, India, dan China) di Yekaterinburg pada 16 Juni lalu.

China adalah pihak yang paling getol mengajukan keberatan atas dominasi dolar AS. Mereka menganggap dominasi dolar telah memicu krisis global dan menimbulkan kekhawatiran menggelembungnya defisit anggaran AS yang akan menimbulkan inflasi serta dikemudian hari akan merugikan aset-aset mereka.

Sebagaimana diketahui, sekitar 70% cadangan devisa asing China berbentuk Dolar. Adapun cadangan devisa China melesat hingga US$ 2 triliun per 30 Juni lalu dari US$ 67,8 miliar dibandingkan tiga bulan sebelumnya.

Sebelumnya, empat bank sentral negara-negara kaya yang tergabung dalam BRIC (Brazil, Rusia, India, dan China) juga merencanakan mendiversifikasikan sebagian cadangan devisa asingnya dan aset-aset berdenominasi dolar AS ke mata uang atau aset lain.

Salah satu aset yang dijadikan alternatif cadangan devisa asing menggantikan US dollar adalah produk obligasi multilateral yang ditawarkan lembaga moneter internasional (IMF).

Muslimin menambahkan, komposisi cadangan devisa sebenarnya ditentukan berdasarkan utang pemerintah dan swasta dalam mata uang negara peminjam yang suatu saat diperlukan. Baik untuk pembayaran bunga dan pokok, atau keperluan mengimpor barang-barang yang dibutuhkan di dalam negeri dari negara utama mitra dagang suatu negara.

Namun, ia menilai apa yang diungkapkan BRIC hanyalah upaya menggertak pemerintah AS agar berhati-hati menjaga stabilitas mata uangnya. Hal ini penting agar nilai portfolio negara BRIC yang ditanam dalam intrumen keuangan AS, baik cash maupun sekuritas, tidak tergerus oleh nilai dolar AS.

“Karena hal ini akan menyebabkan nilai aset negara-negara BRIC itu jadi turun,” papar Dosen Pascasarjana FEUI ini. Di sisi lain, Pemerintah Cina optimistis mata uang negaranya, yuan, dapat menggantikan dolar AS sebagai mata uang cadangan devisa dunia.

Ia bahkan memperkirakan pada 2020 mendatang, yuan sudah menjadi cadangan devisa global, dengan persentase mencapai 3%. Langkah strategis China dalam internasionalisasi yuan adalah dengan meningkatkan penggunaan mata uang yuan baik dalam perdagangan maupun investasi global.

Besarnya cadangan emas milik Cina menjadi salah satu pendukung dari upaya internasionalisasi yuan. Sejak 2003, cadangan emas Cina meningkat 454 metrik ton menjadi 1,054 ton, atau terbesar kelima di dunia.

Penggunaan Yuan juga semakin besar dalam perdagangan global. Sejak Desember 2008, China mengizinkan dua pusat perekonomian negaranya, yakni Provinsi Guangdong dan delta sungai Yangtze menggunakan yuan dalam transaksi dengan dua daerah administrasi khusus yakni Hong Kong dan Macao. China dalam waktu dekat juga membolehkan perusahaan di provinsi Yunnan dan Guangzi menggunakan yuan dalam perdagangan di Asia Tenggara.

China juga telah menjalin kesepakatan currency swap sejumlah 650 miliar yuan dengan beberapa mitra perdagangan mereka, seperti bank sentral Hong Kong, Korea, Malaysia, Belarusia, Indonesia dan Argentina. Swap ini memungkinkan bank sentral di negara-negara tersebut menjual yuan kepada importir lokal yang membeli produk Cina. [E1]

status palsu: LISTS of THE RELIEVING PASTS...

Investors: 2Q revenue a sign of economic health

AP Business Writer
2 hrs 8 mins ago

... seperti komentar gw : angka pengangguran yang MENINGKAT sebuah pertanda bahwa BIAYA usaha mengkerut, artinya peluang LABA MENINGKAT .... weird... : P

NEW YORK – Investors want to see some new math in companies' quarterly reports. No longer content with an economy that's limping toward recovery, the stock market is looking for signs that business improved in the second quarter or at least will in the coming months. And investors will measure that by the revenue figures companies put up as they issue earnings reports during the next four weeks.
Stocks punched higher in March when a handful of companies said profits for the first three months of the year wouldn't be as dismal as feared. But many businesses achieved better-than-expected results by slashing costs, including payrolls.
Now Wall Street wants to see signs that companies are selling more goods and services — for the health of the corporations themselves and for the overall economy. But investors are already on the pessimistic side about earnings, and that has already pulled the Standard & Poor's 500 index down 7 percent from its peak in mid-June.
Analysts polled by Thomson Financial expect earnings for the S&P 500 companies fell an average 35.5 percent in the April-June from a year earlier after falling the same amount in the first quarter.
Stocks could retreat further if companies don't provide some morsels of hope about the economy, said Jennifer Ellison, a principal at Bingham, Osborn & Scarborough in San Francisco.
"If we get some earnings surprises on the downside it could deflate the balloon," she said.
The early read from Alcoa Inc. provided evidence that companies might still be relying on cost-cutting. The company on Wednesday turned in a narrower-than-expected loss for the quarter, crediting efforts to slash expenses and raise cash.
Here are five companies that will report earnings this week. Each provides a snapshot of the economy.
Yum Brands Inc.
• Why it's important: With chains including KFC, Pizza Hut, Taco Bell, Long John Silver's and A&W All-American Food, Yum's 36,000 restaurants span 110 countries and territories. Fast-food chains tend to weather economic downturns better than sit-down restaurants because their food is cheaper.
• When it will report: Tuesday, July 14.
• What the experts say: On average, analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expect Yum to post a profit of 43 cents per share on revenue of $2.5 billion. In the same quarter of last year, the company reported a profit of 45 cents per share on revenue of nearly $2.7 billion.
• You'll know the economy is improving if: Yum's performance improves in its sluggish U.S. operations, especially at brands such as Pizza Hut that generally have higher customer checks. Better results at Pizza Hut and KFC — which has a sizable sit-down business — would signal that more people are opting to eat out rather than cook at home.
• You'll know the economy is not improving if: Yum's U.S. operations falter, especially at its higher-priced chains. Weak sales in Yum's important China operations would be a sign of sluggishness in the global economy.
• The quote: "I'm expecting a pretty high-quality quarter. Things are going OK in the U.S., and I think things are going a little bit better than planned in China," said Larry Miller, restaurant analyst with RBC Capital Markets.
IBM Corp.
• Why it's important: As one of the world's largest corporate technology suppliers, IBM's results say a lot about how much businesses are willing to spend on everything from computer servers to software and consulting services. But it can be tricky to read those results for clues about the broader economy. For one thing, IBM right now is booking revenue on contracts that may have been signed months or even years ago. Second, in a down economy, companies often turn to IBM's outsourcing services as a way to save money, so IBM's sales can go up even while everything else is going down.
The best way to interpret IBM's results for signs of the health of the overall economy is in the company's overall forecast.
When it will report: Thursday, July 16.
What the experts say: On average, analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expect IBM to earn $2.02 per share on $23.58 billion in revenue. In the same quarter of last year, the company reported a profit of $1.98 per share on revenue of $26.8 billion.
You'll know the economy is improving if: IBM's sales show some improvement that can't be attributed mainly to weakness in the dollar. Another encouraging sign would be if the company raises its already-bullish forecast for $9.20 per share in profit in 2009.
You'll know the economy is not improving if: IBM backs off the forecast at all.
The quote: Brian Marshall, an analyst with Broadpoint.AmTech, wrote in a research note Thursday that IBM's management has "navigated the turbulent "economic currents" over the past decade with fine stewardship," but cautioned there might be little room left for IBM to keep wringing out increases in its profit margin.
Marriott International Inc.
• Why it's important: Marriott operates more than 3,200 lodging properties worldwide, and the company's performance offers insight on travel trends and consumer spending. Demand for its hotel rooms and timeshare resorts has been weak, and investors are curious about whether business picked up with the approach of summer.
• When it will report: Thursday, July 16.
• What the experts say: On average, analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expect Marriott to post a profit of 22 cents per share on revenue of $2.54 billion. In the same quarter of last year, the company recorded a higher profit of 51 cents per share on revenue of $3.19 billion.
• You'll know the economy is improving if: Declines in hotel demand start to stabilize. If travelers are booking hotel rooms, it could mean consumer spending is increasing, despite continued layoffs nationwide.
• You'll know the economy is not improving if: Revenue per available room sinks during the quarter. Known in the industry as revpar, revenue per available room is considered a key gauge of a hotel operator's performance. Last quarter, revpar for Marriott's comparable company-operated properties dropped 19.6 percent.
• The quote: "In North America, you will see stabilization for room demand. Leisure travelers are still going on vacations but they're not going as far or not as long a period of time," said Mark Basham, a hotel and restaurant analyst with S&P Equity Research. In 2008, the company recorded 61 percent of revenue in North America.
Harley-Davidson Inc.
• Why it's important: Harley-Davidson is the top retailer of heavyweight motorcycles and its sales are closely tied to consumer confidence. A new hog, as they are called by fiercely loyal owners, is the consummate discretionary purchase and can run $20,000 or more.
• When it will report: Thursday, July 16.
• What the experts say: On average, analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expect Harley to report a profit of 25 cents per share on revenue of $1.18 billion. In the same quarter last year, the company posted a profit of 76 cents per share on revenue of $1.4 billion.
• You'll know the economy is improving if: Operations at Harley-Davidson Financial Services stabilize. The company's financing arm has been posting steep declines in operating income due to the lockup in the securitization market, which it has long relied on for funding. If that market shows signs of life, it means the lending market is easing.
• You'll know the economy is not improving if: Harley cuts motorcycle shipments. Motorcycles are a big-ticket purchase and consumers buy them when they have money to burn. Last quarter, the company stood by its shipment guidance of 264,000 to 273,000 bikes.
The quote: "It is our expectation that the general economy and deteriorating employment numbers could hinder significant increases in motorcycle purchases," KeyBanc analyst Scott Hamann wrote to investors on Tuesday.
Bank of America Corp.
• Why it's important: Bank of America may help investors determine where the economy is headed since so much of its business depends on consumers and housing. The bank has about 55 million consumer and small business customers, making it vulnerable to delinquencies and defaults, yet also ready to thrive when the economy recovers. But the bank has internal issues, especially since CEO Ken Lewis' management ability has been questioned following BofA's acquisition of Merrill Lynch & Co. The bank has received $45 billion in bailout funds, but it's not known when it will repay the government.
• When it will report: Friday, July 17
• What the experts say: On average, analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expect Bank of America to post a profit of 24 cents per share on revenue of $32.35 billion. In the same quarter of last year, the company recorded a profit of 72 cents per share on revenue of $20.32 billion, before the Merrill acquisition.
• You'll know the economy is improving if: There's any sign of improvement in credit. It's a given Bank of America will see more debtors fail to make payments. The question is whether the rise in defaulting loans is starting to moderate, especially among credit cards and mortgages.
• You'll know the economy is not improving if: Loan defaults accelerate at a much faster pace than expected.
• The quote: "This is a crucial period for Ken," said Gary Townsend, president and chief executive of private investment group Hill-Townsend Capital Inc. "He must show his board members and shareholders that his stewardship through the financial crisis and then into the future is something that has been appropriate, adequate and satisfactory."
General Electric Co.
• Why it's important: GE is one of the world's biggest companies. It has 4 million shareholders. Millions of people have GE microwaves in their kitchens. If you flew on a plane recently, chances are good the engines were made by GE. Your favorite NBC television show comes to you courtesy of GE, which owns the network. Your doctor may use GE software to store your medical records. Some of the electricity for your home may come from churning GE windmills. And that light bulb in your bedroom lamp may very well be a GE bulb.
• When it will report: Friday, July 17.
• What experts say: On average, analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expect GE to post a profit of 23 cents per share on revenue of $42.3 billion. In the same quarter of last year, the company recorded a profit of 54 cents per share on revenue of $45.31 billion.
• You'll know the economy is improving if: GE's aircraft engine sales hold up. Big plane makers like Boeing are seeing orders slump, but GE is still doing a brisk business fixing engines that it already sold. If new engine sales are steady, that could show the downturn in global aviation might not be as bad as feared.
• You'll know the economy is not improving if: GE's commercial real estate business keeps tanking. GE owns a lot of shopping centers, manufacturing plants and office buildings through its GE Capital finance division. Many of those are empty as companies and retailers cut back due to the recession.
• The quote: "If we don't get some huge surprise on the revenue side, that is probably a good confirmation that the worst is over," said Peter Sorrentino, senior portfolio manager of Huntington Asset Advisors, which owns 6.4 million GE shares.
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AP Business Writers Bruce Schreiner in Louisville, Ky.; Jordan Robertson in San Jose, Calif.; Betsy Verecky in New York; Dan Strumpf in New York; Ieva M. Augstums in Charlotte, N.C. and Stephen Manning in Washington, D.C., contributed to this report.