pelan-pelan saja: Blog I am Investor Pindah

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pelan-pelan saja: chinDONESIA in ACTioN ... 190310

Populasi topang ekonomi RI
19 Mar 2010
Bisnis Indonesia Ekonomi
JAKARTA Perekonomian Indonesia diuntungkan oleh jumlah populasi penduduk yang besar.

Menteri Keuangan Sri Mulyani Indrawati saat menjadi pembicara kunci di acara The 10th Annual Citi Indonesia Economic and Political Outlook 2010 kemarin menilai RI bisa memanfaatkan populasinya yang besar untuk mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi. Sumber daya manusia yang besar tersebut, imbuhnya, jika ditingkatkan kualitasnya dapat memberikan kontribusi positif terhadap kesinambungan ekonomi nasional.

Sebelumnya, Ketua Lembaga Penyelidikan Ekonomi dan Masyarakat Universitas Indonesia (LPEM-UI) Chatib Basri pernah memperkirakan perubahan struktur demografi dunia akan berpengaruh kepada permintaan tenaga kerja di Indonesia dan juga kebutuhan untuk perbaikan kualitas tenaga kerja pada masa depan. is/s/ws/agi)

pelan-pelan saja: HIDUP INI SEBUAH KENEKATAN ... 180310

Negara yang APBN-nya sedang 'berdarah-darah' tidak butuh Menteri Keuangan yang terbaik tetapi butuh Menteri Keuangan yang nekat. Butuh menteri yang bisa melakukan tindakan ekstrem untuk mengatasi keuangan negara yang lebih besar pasak daripada tiang.

Hal tersebut ditegaskan Menteri Keuangan Sri Mulyani Indrawati dalam Seminar The Annual Citi Indonesia Economic and Political Outlook di Hotel Ritz Carlton Pacific Place, Jakarta, Kamis (18/3/2010).

"Krisis kemarin (2008), ada 4 negara, yaitu Yunani, Itali, Spanyol, Portugal yang APBN-nya berdarah-darah, tidak sustainable atau kata ibu rumah tangga besar pasak daripada tiang, tidak perlu menghire menteri keuangan yang terbaik tapi menteri keuangan yang nekat," ujarnya.

Sri Mulyani menilai untuk memperbaiki APBN yang tidak sehat di mana pengeluaran lebih besar dibandingkan penerimaan butuh suatu tindakan yang agak ekstrim, yaitu dengan meningkatkan penerimaan melalui pajak dan memotong belanja kementerian/lembaga.

"Ketika memotong budget akan memotong kenikmatan sedangkan dalam kondisi PHK musti bayar pajak. Itu bukan hal yang mudah," ujarnya.

Pada kesempatan itu juga, Sri Mulyani menyatakan dinamika global dan regional kemungkinan besar masih akan nilai tukar rupiah pada beberapa waktu ke depan.

"Negara-negara yang terkena krisis akan melakukan exit strategy yang akan mulai dilakukan pada kuartal II 2010 nanti," ungkapnya.

Di sisi regional, Sri Mulyani menyatakan saat ini juga terjadi pertarungan antara mata uang dolar AS dengan mata uang China. China saat ini menguasai dolar AS dalam jumlah sangat besar. Menurutnya, dua kekuatan ini sedang mencari keseimbangan baru yang akan memberikan dampak ke global dan regional termasuk ke Indonesia.

"Berbagai dinamika itu kemungkinan akan memberikan risiko terhadap exchange rate kita. Mungkin kalau rupiah, pertanyaannya, Bu Sri Mulyani masih ada nggak?" ujarnya diiringi tawa para tamu pada acara tersebut.

Sementara itu, mengenai kebijakan ekonomi yang akan ditempuh selama 2010, mengatakan, tidak ada kebijakan ekonomi yang akan mengejutkan.

"Kebijakan ekonomi makro dan mikro tidak ada yang surprised," ungkapnya.



Sumber: detikcom

pelan-pelan saja: G-factor gladly ...(2): 170310

Feldstein Sees Greece Euro-Exit Pressures as Deficit Plan Fails

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By Simon Kennedy


March 17 (Bloomberg) -- Harvard University Professor Martin Feldstein, who warned almost two decades ago that the euro would prove an “economic liability,” said Greece’s austerity plan will fail and the country may quit the single currency to fix its fiscal crisis.

Under pressure from investors and fellow policy makers, Prime Minister George Papandreou’s government is striving to knock four percentage points off its budget gap this year from 12.7 percent of gross domestic product and has vowed to meet the EU’s 3 percent limit in 2012 for the first time since 2006.

“The idea that Greece can go from a 12 percent deficit now to a 3 percent deficit two years from now seems fantasy,” Feldstein, an adviser to U.S. presidents since Ronald Reagan, said in a March 13 interview in Geneva. “The alternatives are to default in some way or to leave, or both.”

His diagnosis clashes with that of European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet, who calls Greece’s strategy “convincing” and rejects as “absurd” any speculation it might leave the euro zone. Investors nevertheless aren’t ruling out Feldstein’s analysis. Billionaire George Soros said last month that the euro “may not survive,” and credit default swaps indicate a 22 percent chance Greece will default within five years, up from 16 percent a year ago.

The judgment of Feldstein, 70, a former contender to chair the Federal Reserve, marks his latest broadside against the single currency five years after he said its rules generated a “very strong bias toward large chronic fiscal deficits” and more than a year since he first suggested the 16-nation bloc may splinter.

‘Absolutely’ Won’t Break Up

He “has more reason to think he’s right than five years ago, and it’s natural to talk about limitations,” said Philip Lane, an economics professor at Trinity College Dublin. “But the euro area will absolutely not break up.”

Greek workers disrupted transportation services and tried to storm parliament on March 5 as lawmakers passed 4.8 billion euros ($6.6 billion) of extra deficit reductions, including lower wages for public employees. Such cutbacks will continue to run into resistance as unemployment is propelled above December’s 10.2 percent and recent declines in the country’s bond yields are tied to cheerleading by European policy makers, Feldstein said.

Greece’s 10-year bond yielded 6.16 percent as of 4:57 p.m. yesterday in London, a percentage point lower than Jan. 28. The premium investors demand to hold the bonds over their German equivalents narrowed to 297 basis points from 396 basis points.

‘Polite Way’

Greece will ultimately need to mull alternative ways to tackle its crisis, possibly by finding a “polite way” to default, Feldstein said. That might include persuading investors to swap maturing bonds for longer-term assets at lower interest rates. Another option would be leaving the euro area to devalue and then returning once the fiscal weaknesses are solved.

“I don’t know that there’s a good solution to this problem,” Feldstein said.

Pulling out and re-entering is impractical and gives other countries an excuse not to restrain deficits and improve their competitiveness within the euro zone, said Charles Wyplosz, a former student of Feldstein’s and director of the International Center for Monetary and Banking Studies in Geneva.

While leaving the bloc and devaluing its currency would likely enable Greece to boost exports, the so-called holiday strategy would also require spending cuts, lower real wages and tax increases, Feldstein said.

“Put all that together, and it doesn’t look like countries are going to eagerly line up to do it,” he said.

Belt-Tightening

European governments this week laid the groundwork for a financial lifeline to Greece that would provide emergency loans if needed, breaking a taboo against aid to cash-strapped nations to avert a deeper crisis for the euro. Standard & Poor’s yesterday removed Greece from “creditwatch negative,” lowering the threat of a further credit-rating cut. Greece has a BBB+ rating after S&P downgraded it from A- in December.

While a bailout would be a “relatively painless solution,” Feldstein said it would generate opposition among voters and risk other nations demanding similar assistance.

Feldstein’s opinions command attention because of his career at the hearts of both academia and politics. This experience catapulted him to the brink of the Fed chairmanship five years ago before President George W. Bush picked Ben S. Bernanke.

Feldstein received the John Bates Clark Medal in 1977 as the U.S. economist under the age of 40 who made the most significant contribution to economic thought and knowledge, then ran the National Bureau of Economic Research, arbiter of U.S. business cycles, for most of the next 30 years until 2008.

Former Students

He chaired Reagan’s Council of Economic Advisers, counseled Bush’s White House campaign and now sits on President Barack Obama’s Economic Recovery Advisory Board. Among his former students are Lawrence Summers and Lawrence Lindsey, the current and former directors of the White House’s National Economic Council.

“Marty’s a very important economist,” said Glenn Hubbard, dean of Columbia University’s Graduate School of Business in New York, who was also taught by Feldstein and chaired Bush’s Council of Economic Advisers. “He’s a great scholar, but what distinguishes him is that his ideas have practical impact, too.”

As long ago as June 1992, Feldstein wrote in the Economist that “economic analysis” didn’t justify a single European currency. In his most-famous contribution to the debate, he wrote in Foreign Affairs in 1997 that “war within Europe itself would be abhorrent but not impossible” under the euro.

‘EMU and War’

Many economists read his comment ahead of the birth of Economic and Monetary Union as a forecast that war would break out. Feldstein denies that, saying an editor wrote the headline -- “EMU and War” -- and he was arguing that the euro wasn’t a guarantee against such a conflict and might fan cross-border political differences.

While Feldstein says he likes Trichet “a lot and I think it’s mutual,” he notes the ECB president often points out that skeptics doubted the euro would exist or last. “You don’t find any of that in my writings,” he said.

Even so, Lars Jonung, an adviser to the European Commission in Brussels and co-author of a January paper on how American economists viewed the euro through the 1990s, says Feldstein is a “consistent pessimist, and so far he’s been proved wrong.”

Well-Established

The currency is well-established and hasn’t sparked political turmoil, trade has increased and inflation differentials in the euro area are similar to those for U.S. states, Jonung said in his Econ Journal Watch study. Greece’s measures and the response of EU governments will eventually strengthen monetary union, he added.

Feldstein counters that global growth during the currency’s first decade helped mask its flaws, such as the mismatch of spreading uniform interest and exchange rates over diverse economies that lack fiscal discipline. His criticism doesn’t stop him from predicting the euro will appreciate against the dollar as investors punish the U.S. trade imbalance. The euro has fallen about 4 percent against the U.S. currency this year and traded at $1.37 yesterday.

Feldstein turned his attention to the implications of the euro for budgets in 2005, when he said a decision by the euro’s members to ease fiscal curbs left the “way open to much larger sustained deficits.” By November 2008, he was writing that diverging bond yields within the region signaled investors “regard a breakup as a real possibility.”

Two months later, as the euro marked its 10th anniversary, Feldstein told the American Economic Association the currency faced an “important testing time” and countries may ultimately leave it to regain control of their economies.

‘Proved Wrong’

“American economists such as Marty have been proved wrong for a decade and will be proved wrong for the next decade,” said Wyplosz, who predicts that a Greece exit would trigger a “total collapse of the Greek economy.”

Feldstein stands by his analysis that it’s not “unthinkable” some countries may choose life outside the euro area. Leaving is “certainly possible, and in part it can happen even if all the economic advice to a government is, ‘You shouldn’t do this,’” he said. “Politicians don’t always listen to their economists.”

pelan-pelan saja: Ch on DECREASING the power ... 160310

China Kembali Kurangi Kepemilikan Obligasi AS
Selasa, 16 Maret 2010 | 14:37 WIB

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China Kembali Kurangi Kepemilikan Obligasi AS
BEIJING, KOMPAS.com - China kembali memangkas kepemilikan obligasi Treasury AS (obligasi negara AS) ke tingkat terendah dalam delapan bulan. Departemen Keuangan AS mengatakan Senin (15/3/2010) waktu setempat, di tengah meningkatnya ketegangan atas klaim Beijing bahwa undervalue mata uangnya untuk keuntungan perdagangan.

China mengurangi kepemilikan obligasi AS menjadi 889,0 miliar dollar pada akhir Januari dari 894,8 miliar dollar AS bulan sebelumnya, angka-angka terbaru Departemen Keuangan tentang aliran modal internasional menunjukkan.

Tingkat Januari adalah terendah sejak Juni tahun lalu ketika China menguasai 915,8 miliar dollar AS. Walaupun ini penurunan bulanan berturut-turut ketiga, China tetap pemilik surat utang pemerintah AS teratas.

Adapun Jepang berada jauh di belakang pada tempat nomor dua pemilik obligasi AS dengan 765,4 miliar dollar AS, sedikit berubah dari angka Desember 765,7 miliar dollar AS.
Departemen Keuangan menciptakan kegemparan bulan lalu ketika mengumumkan China telah memangkas kepemilikan obligasi AS menjadi 755,4 miliar dollar AS pada Desember -- penurunan terbesar sejak Agustus 2000, yang memungkinkan Jepang untuk menjadi pemegang terbesar surat utang pemerintah Amerika.

Tetapi dua hari kemudian, departemen merevisi tajam data yang menunjukkan bahwa sementara China telah mengurangi kembali kepemilikan obligasi, tingkat yang masih baik di atas Jepang.

Revisi datang ketika departemen memandang kepemilikan China dalam obligasi Treasury AS yang dipegangnya di pasar ketiga seperti Inggris dan Hong Kong, tidak meningkat pada perkiraan sebelumnya.

pelan-pelan saja: G-factor gladly ...

Spekulasi bailout Yunani perkuat euro atas yen
Senin, 15/03/2010 10:53:44 WIBOleh: M. Yunan Hilmi
SYDNEY (Bloomberg): Euro diperdagangkan mendekati posisi tertinggi dalam 5 pekan atas yen akibat spekulasi bailout Uni Eropa atas Yunani menjelang pertemuan para menteri keuangan di Brussels.

Yen ditutup ke posisi terendah atas dolar AS di tengah kekhawatiran Bank of Japan akan mengambil langkah ekstra untuk melonggarkan kredit pada pertemuan dua hari mulai besok. Yen juga dipengaruhi oleh pernyataan PM Yukio Hatoyama pekan lalu bahwa pemerintah perlu menyetop penguatan mata uang.

"Pasar tengah mencari konfirmasi kemungkinan persetujuan bailout Yunani oleh seluruh anggota zona euro. Risikonya adalah Bank of Japan menegaskan sesuatu tentang kebijakan pelonggaran moneter aatau sejenisnya dan, jika hal itu terjadi, tentu positif bagi euro-yen," kata Imre Speizer, analis pasar Westpac Banking Corp di Wellington.

Euro diperdagangkan menguat pada 124,58 yen pada pukul 11:45 a.m. di Tokyo, dari 124,69 posisi New York pekan lalu setelah sempat naik sampai 125,32 yen, terkuat sejak 4 Februari. Mata uang 16 negara itu berada pada US$1,3740, melemah dari US$1,3769.

Yen diperdagangkan pada 90,69 per dolar AS, melemah dari 90,56. Pada 12 Februari, yen melemah sampai 91,09 per dolar AS, terendah sejak 23 Februari.

Yunani diperkirakan mendapatkan paket bailout senilai 55 miliar euro (US$75,7 miliar) dari UE. Demikian seperti dilansir koran Kurier yang berbasis di Vienna.

Para menteri keuangan akan membicarakan masalah penyelamatan Yunani, apakah didanai melalui obligasi UE yang dijamin oleh pemerintah di kawasan itu.

Defisit yang terjadi di Yunani, Spanyol, dan Portugal menyebabkan euro melemah selama bulan pertama tahun ini. Yunani menderita defisit sebesar 12,7% dari GDP merupakan yang terbesar di UE pada 2009.

UBS memperkirakan euro melemah sampai US$1,30 dalam 3 bulan ke depan.(yn)

pelan-pelan saja: LEHMAN DIGOROK PASCA DIGOROK ... 140310

LEHMAN BROTHERS "NAKAL"
Citibank & JP Morgan Percepat Kejatuhan Lehman?
Minggu, 14 Maret 2010 | 19:18 WIB

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Gedung Lehman Brothers
TERKAIT:
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NEW YORK, KOMPAS.com - Pesaing dekat Lehman Brothers, yaitu Citibank dan JP Morgan, dianggap membantu mempercepat kejatuhan Lehman. Pasalnya, saat Lehman kekurangan likuiditas, kedua bank investasi AS itu meminta tambahan penjaminan dan mengubah perjanjian menjelang kejatuhan.

Temuan itu terdapat dalam laporan 2.200 halaman tentang kebangkrutan Lehman Brothers, September 2008. Laporan itu dipublikasikan hari Rabu (10/3/2010) oleh peneliti Anton Valukas dari firma hukum Jenner & Block.

Laporan itu merupakan hasil penelitian lebih dari satu tahun untuk menentukan siapa sebenarnya yang bersalah di balik runtuhnya Lehman memicu krisis finansial global. Kebangkrutan Lehman merupakan terbesar dalam sejarah korporasi AS.

Hasilnya waktu itu cukup parah, aliran kredit terhenti. Bank tidak percaya satu sama lain. Kepercayaan merosot tajam.

JP Morgan Chase & Co dan Citigroup meminta tambahan penjaminan sebesar 21 miliar dollar AS ketika Lehman mulai guncang. Laporan itu menyebutkan, pada 11 September 2008 JP Morgan meminta tambahan jaminan 5 miliar dollar AS.

Anton Valukas mengatakan, jika JP Morgan dan Citigroup tidak menekan Lehman, mungkin Lehman masih berdiri. Mungkin juga situasi tidak akan parah dan mungkin tidak akan membuat satu dari lima warga AS kehilangan pekerjaan.

Valukas mengatakan, ”Permintaan jaminan oleh para kreditor Lehman berdampak langsung terhadap likuiditas Lehman. Ini menjadi penyebab utama kebangkrutan Lehman.”

Hal ini juga bisa membuat Lehman mengajukan tuntutan hukum ke JP Morgan dan Citibank.

Lalai dan palsu

Auditor Ernst & Young juga dinilai lalai, dan melaporkan hasil audit ”palsu” soal keuangan Lehman Brothers. Jika Valukas benar, juri akan mengajukan sidang di pengadilan tentang hal ini.

Selain permintaan tambahan kolateral, penumpukan aset Lehman Brothers juga terpusat pada kredit kepemilikan kredit rumah bermasalah. Juga ada kasus penyesatan informasi yang material dalam akuntansi Lehman.

Menurut laporan itu, Lehman menggunakan rekayasa akuntansi untuk menutupi utang sebesar 50 miliar dollar AS di pembukuannya. Semua itu dilakukan untuk menyembunyikan ketergantungan dari utangnya.

Para pejabat senior Lehman, juga auditor mereka Ernst & Young, sadar akan tindakan ini, menurut Valukas.

Tidak hanya itu, Valukas menyinggung kemungkinan gugatan hukum terhadap mantan pimpinan Lehman, Dick Fuld, juga pejabat keuangan Lehman, eksekutif Lehman lainnya seperti Chris O’Meara, Erin Callan, dan Ian Lowitt. Perusahaan itu dituduh telah melakukan skandal akuntansi.

Harian Inggris The Financial Times melaporkan, Valukas menemukan kesalahan Lehman sebenar para eksekutifnya sendiri karena mereka melakukan berbagai kesalahan penilaian bisnis untuk memanipulasi neraca perusahaan.

Namun, laporan tersebut tidak menyimpulkan apakah para eksekutif Lehman melakukan pelanggaran hukum pasar modal. Henry M Paulson Jr, yang kemudian menjadi menteri keuangan AS, pernah memperingati Richard S Fuld Jr, mantan CEO Lehman, bahwa Lehman mungkin akan bangkrut jika tidak dapat menstabilitasi keuangannya atau menemukan pembeli.(joe)

pelan-pelan saja: kebebasan sebuah PENJARA tanpa batas

How free markets sank the U.S. economy

Thu, Mar 11 2010

By Ellen Freilich

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Two years ago, a poisonous brew of bad economics, lax regulation, and egregious behavior boiled over, scalding the financial system and pitching the United States into its steepest downturn since the Great Depression.

The antidotes to the crisis, concocted by many of the players who stirred the original toxic brew, have pulled the U.S. economy back from the brink.

But those remedies won't prevent future crises, Joseph Stiglitz, winner of the 2001 Nobel Prize for Economics, writes in "Freefall: America, Free Markets, and the Sinking of the World Economy" (Norton, $27.95).

In contrast to the regulations that emerged from the Great Depression, which promoted growth and stability, the response to this crisis has led to a less-competitive financial system dominated by banks that are too big to fail, he writes.

Stiglitz, former chief economist at The World Bank and now a professor at Columbia University in New York, focuses on banks' failure to assess and manage risk, especially when risk is disguised by complex financial instruments. Such "modern alchemy" transformed risky sub-prime mortgages into A-rated products dubbed safe enough to be held by pension funds, he says.

America's financial markets also failed to allocate capital productively, he says. "At their peak in 2007, the bloated financial sector absorbed 41 percent of profits in the corporate sector," Stiglitz writes.

To add insult to injury, some of those profits were spent influencing Congress to make certain the government would not regulate risky derivatives or curb predatory lending.

Finally, flawed incentive structures fostered corruption, encouraging deceptive accounting that would lead to higher stock prices and higher bonuses for Wall Street managers.

By 2008, the nation's economy was in a freefall and the United States, a country that purported to revile socialism, had to socialize the risks banks had taken and intervene in markets in unprecedented ways, Stiglitz writes.

But where does that leave the financial system and, more importantly, the U.S. economy?

"It's very likely we will have a very slow recovery, I hope not as protracted as the Japanese did, but no one thought in 1990 that they would have one that long either," Stiglitz said in a recent conversation with Reuters.

Japan is viewed as having lost a decade of growth during the 1990s before the economy bounced back in 2004-06.

Stiglitz said one difference between Japan and the United States is that Japan has zero labor force growth, while the United States has a 1 percent labor force growth rate.

Thus, if U.S. jobs grow at a 1 percent pace, "it's as bad as Japan's growing at zero percent," he said.

Other differences exist between Japan and the United States, some of which argue for a quicker comeback for the United States and others than point to a slower one, Stiglitz said.

For one thing, while Japan could export its way out of its slowdown, the United States cannot because European growth is also slow.

For another, Japan began its recession with a high savings rate and that enabled it to expand by decreasing savings and increasing consumption.

"The United States is in the opposite situation, having begun with a savings rate of zero," Stiglitz said. "Thus, the likelihood that our savings rate is going to go up is very high and rising savings can contribute significantly to a prolonged slowdown."

The healthcare situation in the United States, with its issues of equity and access, also has implications for U.S. growth, Stiglitz told Reuters. Health affects productivity, and the cost of healthcare affects competitiveness, he said.

"To make things worse, we have made the fundamental mistake of linking the provision of healthcare to employment, creating strong interactions between deficiencies in the health care system and problems in the labor market," he said.

The solution to that problem would be to move to a single payer system that recognizes health as a social cost, not an employment cost, Stiglitz said.

"Providing low-skilled workers who earn minimum wage with health insurance almost doubles the cost of employing them so the adverse affects of the current system are most marked on the low-wage part of the labor force," he said.

But the biggest risk to the economic recovery is the "very, very strong political risk" posed by those who argue for deficit reduction, he said.

"President Obama is trying to walk a very fine line on that issue now, saying he will cut the deficit over the long run and stimulate the economy over the short run," he said. "But the myopia of the deficit hawks won't let them buy into that."

(Reporting by Ellen Freilich; Editing by Eddie Evans)

pelan-pelan saja: pemulihan atawa balon siap letus ... 140310

Ika Akbarwati
Associate Analyst Vibiz Research Center
Bubble Ekonomi, Potensi di Tahun 2010
Kamis, 04 Maret 2010 21:00 WIB


(Vibiznews – Economy) – Akhir-akhir ini kita sering membaca dan mendengar istilah bubble ekonomi. Kebijakan pemerintah dan bank sentral China untuk mengurangi likuiditas dengan cara menaikkan GWM perbankan disebut-sebut sebagai langkah untuk mencegah bubble pada ekonomi di negara tersebut. Istilah ini menjadi begitu popular di setiap pembahasan mengenai pengetatan moneter di China. (04/03)

Istilah bubble ekonomi (biasa juga disebut sebagai bubble spekulatif, bubble pasar, bubble harga , dan bubble keuangan) adalah kondisi di mana keadaan perekonomian tidak sehat terjadi akibat timbulnya spekulasi yang menaikan harga-harga di mana seringkali kenaikan harga tersebut akan menimbulkan spekulasi lanjutan yang kembali menaikan harga-harga lagi. Pada akhirnya, harga-harga yang tidak realistis itu akan mencapai puncaknya, dan jatuh kembali ke nilai realistisnya secara bersamaan sehingga perekonomian mengalami crash (krisis).

Biasanya bubble ini disebabkan pola investasi di mana para investor percaya terhadap teori "greater fool" (orang yang lebih bodoh). Misalnya, di dalam bursa saham atau real estate, para investor melakukan investasi di sebuah properti/saham pada nilai yang over-valued namun mereka percaya dan pada akhirnya dapat menjual properti/saham tersebut dengan nilai lebih tinggi lagi kepada orang lain agar mendapat untung. Lama kelamaan, orang akan sadar bahwa properti/saham itu telah over-valued dan tak dapat dijual lagi sehingga semua harga jatuh dan para investor mengalami kebangkrutan. Dalam kasus ini, disebut juga stock market bubble. Dan inilah yang mengakibatkan krisis di Jepang pada akhir 1980an.

Bubble ekonomi di Jepang terjadi pada periode 1986 – 1991. Saat itu harga property dan saham mengalami kenaikan yang sangat tajam dalam waktu singkat. Kolapsnya bursa saham Jepang yang mengikuti meledaknya bubble tersebut tercatat berdampak nyaris selama satu dekade. Bursa Jepang mencapai titik nadir pada tahun 2003 dan kembali terhantam oleh badai krisis subprime yang terjadi pada tahun 2008 lalu. Bubble aset yang terjadi di Jepang pada periode 80 -90 tersebut disebut sebagai “Dekade yang Hilang”.

Krisis subprime yang mencapai puncaknya pada tahun 2008 dan telah mengakibatkan hancurnya bursa asham dan berbagai lembaga keuangan dunia juga merupakan salah satu contoh bubble ekonomi. Amerika Serikat mengalami bubble property pada periode 2006 -2007. Pada saat itu banyak para pembeli rumah sebenarnya tidak memiliki kelayakan untuk menerima kredit. Kondisi ini pada akhirnya menyebabkan maraknya gagal bayar kredit yang mengakibatkan penyitaan terhadap aset yang pada akhirnya menimbulkan pecahnya bubble tersebut.

Instrumen Investasi yang Berpotensi Timbulkan “Bubble”
Salah satu instrument investasi yang secara luas diperkirakan memiliki potensi untuk menciptakan bubble adalah T-Bills yang dikeluarkan oleh pemerintah AS. Menurut “suhu” investasi, Warren Buffett, T-Bills pemerintah AS merupakan investasi yang boleh dibilang saat ini tidak ada harganya.

Menurut Buffett peringkat AAA yang dimiliki oleh obligasi yang dikeluarkan oleh pemerintah AS ini bukan sebuah jaminan atas investasi yang aman. Justru ia menyatakan bahwa dengan langkah-langkah yang dilakukan oleh pemerintah dan bank sentral AS untuk menanggulangi krisis keuangan dan berusaha memulihkan ekonomi AS dari keterpurukan terburuk sejak Depresi Hebat, stimulus akan membawa kondisi inflasi yang tidak dapat dihindarkan. Hal ini sangat berbahaya bagi para pelaku pasar yang investasinya memiliki pendapatan tetap. Menurut Buffett kondisi bubble yang dapat ditimbulkan oleh obligasi pemerintah AS ini sama berbahayanya dengan bubble property Jepang di tahun 80 – 90-an lalu.

Dalam sebuah wawancara dengan David Cui, strategis BofA untuk China, ia mengatakan bahwa China memiliki kemungkinan untuk mengalami bubble asset pada tahun 2010 ini. Menurutnya akan terjadi migrasi modal yang luar biasa besar dari China yang disebabkan oleh suku bunga real yang negative. Penyebab dari kondisi ini tidak lain adalah inflasi.

Menurut Cui tingkat suku bunga tabungan di bank akan jatuh di bawah level inflasi yang terjadi. Jika demikian maka akan terjadi migrasi tabungan di mana akan lebih sedikit orang yang menaruh uangnya dalam bentuk tabungan di China. Kondisi ini dapat mengakibatkan pasar saham dan property China mengalami penurunan tajam yang akan memicu pecahnya bubble.

(Ika Akbarwati/IA/vbn)

pelan-pelan saja: SALAH BERTINDAK @bank kolaps, DUNIA NGERASAIn dah ... 120310

JPMorgan, Citigroup Helped Cause Lehman Collapse, Report Says

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By Linda Sandler, Bob Van Voris and Don Jeffrey


March 12 (Bloomberg) -- JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Citigroup Inc. helped cause the failure of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. by demanding more collateral and changing guarantee agreements, according to a court-ordered report on the biggest bankruptcy in U.S. history.

“The demands for collateral by Lehman’s lenders had direct impact on Lehman’s liquidity,” said Anton Valukas, the bankruptcy examiner, in a 2,200-page document filed yesterday in Manhattan federal court. “Lehman’s available liquidity is central to the question of why Lehman failed.”

Former Lehman Chief Executive Officer Richard Fuld, ex- Chief Financial Officer Erin Callan, former Executive Vice President Ian Lowitt and former Managing Director Christopher O’Meara certified misleading statements about the bank’s finances, according to the report. Fuld, 63, was “at least grossly negligent,” Valukas said. New York-based Lehman collapsed in September 2008 with $639 billion in assets.

In addition to his conclusions regarding New York-based Citigroup and JPMorgan, Valukas said of London-based Barclays Plc’s purchase of Lehman’s North American brokerage that a “limited amount of assets” belonging to Lehman were “improperly transferred to Barclays.” He added that the value of the assets may not be “material.”

Kerrie Cohen, a Barclays spokeswoman in New York, and Brian Marchiony, a JPMorgan spokesman, declined to comment.

Preliminary Review

Danielle Romero-Apsilos, a spokeswoman for Citigroup, said in an e-mailed statement that the bank is reviewing the report, and that a preliminary analysis shows the examiner “has not identified any wrongdoing on Citi’s part.”

Lewis Liman, a lawyer for Lowitt, who is now at Barclays, said in an e-mailed statement his client did nothing wrong.

“In the three months during which he held the job, Mr. Lowitt worked diligently and faithfully to discharge all of his duties as Lehman’s CFO,” Liman said. “Any suggestion that Mr. Lowitt breached his fiduciary duties is baseless.”

Barclays is Britain’s second-biggest bank. Citigroup is the third biggest U.S. bank, and JPMorgan is second. Bank of America Corp. is the biggest U.S. bank by assets.

Fuld was warned months before the bankruptcy by Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson that Lehman might fail if it continued to report losses without finding a buyer or formulating a survival plan, according to Valukas’s report.

‘Grossly Negligent’

Fuld was “at least grossly negligent in causing Lehman to file misleading periodic reports” while its risks were rising because of long-term assets financed with short-term debt, Valukas said in the report.

Lehman’s executives engaged in conduct ranging from “non- culpable errors of business judgment” to “actionable balance sheet manipulation,” as they used “accounting gimmicks” to move assets off the balance sheet without disclosing that to the government, rating-agencies, investors or Lehman’s board.

Fuld’s lawyer, Patricia Hynes, disputed the examiner’s allegation that the Lehman estate has a claim against him relating to transactions called “Repo 105 transactions.”

“Mr. Fuld did not know what those transactions were -- he didn’t structure or negotiate them, nor was he aware of their accounting treatment,” Hynes said in a statement. She also said none of Lehman’s senior financial officers, lawyers or outside auditors raised concerns about the transactions with Fuld.

Erika Burk, a lawyer who represents O’Meara in Lehman- related securities lawsuits, didn’t return a call seeking comment after regular business hours yesterday. Robert Cleary, a lawyer for Callan, said he hadn’t seen the report and declined to comment.

A Judge’s Son

Valukas, 66, a judge’s son, is chairman of the Chicago- based law firm Jenner & Block LLP, where his clients have included David Radler, Hollinger International Inc.’s former president. As U.S. Attorney in Chicago from 1985 to 1989, he was dubbed the Midwest’s Rudolph Giuliani for his hard line on white-collar crime, according to a 1989 New York Times profile.

In his report, he said that Ernst & Young LLP, Lehman’s auditing firm, failed to question inadequate disclosures by the Lehman executives.

The examiner said Lehman’s directors are “immunized from personal liability” concerning the way the company handled risk because management hadn’t presented any “red flags” to them.

“Our last audit of the company was for the fiscal year ending Nov. 30, 2007,” said Charlie Perkins, a spokesman for Ernst & Young, in an e-mailed statement. “Our opinion indicated that Lehman’s financial statements for that year were fairly presented in accordance with Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP), and we remain of that view.”

$38 Million

Valukas spent a year and $38 million producing the report. He interviewed more than 100 people including U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and former U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Christopher Cox, and scrutinized more than 10 million documents, plus 20 million pages of e-mails from Lehman, according to filings in U.S. Bankruptcy Court in New York.

“There are a limited number of colorable claims for avoidance actions against JPMorgan and Citibank,” Valukas said in the report. He defined a colorable claim as sufficient credible evidence to persuade a jury to award damages at trial.

Barclays bought Lehman’s brokerage for $1.54 billion. Lehman has sued Barclays for at least $5 billion, saying it made a “windfall” on the purchase. Barclays responded that it’s owed $3 billion. A bankruptcy-court trial is set for April 26.

Improperly Transferred

The assets improperly transferred to Barclays included equipment with a book value of less than $10 million and customer information of “questionable value” that Barclays didn’t obtain in a “wrongful or unlawful” way, Valukas said. He found “limited colorable claims” against the bank for the transfers. The examiner found no evidence that any securities transferred to Barclays in the sale of the brokerage were owned by Lehman or its affiliates.

JPMorgan and Citigroup were two of New York-based Lehman’s main short-term lenders. On Feb. 24, Lehman said it settled with JPMorgan over the last of $29 billion in claims the bank filed against Lehman.

Citigroup, which handled currency trades for Lehman, received a new guarantee from Lehman when the now-bankrupt firm was already insolvent and didn’t give enough value in return, the report said.

“The examiner concludes that a colorable claim exists to avoid the amended guaranty as constructively fraudulent,” Valukas’s report said.

Lehman CEO Bryan Marsal said in an e-mail that he would “carefully evaluate” Valukas’s report to assess how it might help “ongoing efforts to advance creditor interests.”

The case is In re Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., 08-13555, U.S. Bankruptcy Court, Southern District of New York (Manhattan).

pelan-pelan saja: Ch on MAINTAINING speed ONLY ... 120310

China cannot maintain fast industrial growth: minister
BEIJING
Fri Mar 12, 2010 2:17am EST
(Reuters) - China will be unable to maintain the fast pace of industrial output growth seen in the first two months of the year, industry minister Li Yizhong said on Friday.

Industrial output in January-February rose 20.7 percent from the same period a year earlier.

Speaking at a news conference on the sidelines of China's annual session of parliament, Li also said that the economic burst delivered by the country's stimulus package, which was launched in late 2008, had nearly run its course.

(Reporting by Lucy Hornby and Shen Yan; Writing by Simon Rabinovitch; Editing by Ken Wills)

pelan-pelan saja: deindustrialisasi itu TIDAK ADA ... 100310

Sungguhkah Terjadi Pelemahan Industri?
Senin, 8 Maret 2010 - 09:14 wib
TEXT SIZE :

Cyrillus Harinowo Hadiwerdoyo. (Foto: Koran SI)
BARU-baru ini saya berkunjung ke pabrik produk perawatan kulit Unilever Indonesia di Kawasan Industri Jababeka. Memasuki lobi bangunan pabrik, saya terkesan karena suasana lebih mirip bagian kosmetik Sogo atau department storelainnya.

Suasana mewah muncul di lobi dan terus terbawa ke bagian dalam pabrik yang terjaga sangat rapi dan bersih. Saat diresmikan Maret 2008 atau hanya tujuh bulan sejak pembangunan dimulai, diberitakan bahwa pabrik tersebut merupakan pabrik produk perawatan kulit terbesar di Asia.Dalam perencanaan awal Unilever Global, pabrik tersebut direncanakan sebagai basis produksi untuk pasar Asia. Kurang dari dua tahun sejak mulai beroperasi, pabrik tersebut akhirnya mulai berproduksi mendekati kapasitas terpasang akibat besarnya permintaan produk seperti Ponds,Vaselin, Citra.Ternyata, pemenuhan produk untuk ekspor ke pasar Asia hanya tiga persen dari keseluruhan produksi dan selebihnya untuk memenuhi pasar domestik.

Perkembangan ini membuktikan kebenaran keputusan mereka untuk membangun pabrik tersebut di Indonesia, bukan Thailand yang memiliki banyak hal lebih baik daripada Indonesia. Pasar Indonesia demikian besar. Dengan tingginya permintaan produk perawatan kulit, Unilever Indonesia harus membangun pabrik yang kedua pada 2010 demi memenuhi permintaan tinggi itu. Jika pabrik pertama dikatakan sebagai yang terbesar di Asia, bagaimana jadinya jika dua pabrik dengan kapasitas yang sama telah berdiri? Tentu gelar terbesar tersebut akan semakin kukuh. Investasi semacam ini bukan hanya monopoli Unilever Indonesia yang setiap tahun selalu menyediakan anggaran investasi besar.

Pekan lalu diresmikan ekspansi pabrik susu Nestle yang mampu memproses 1 juta liter susu setiap tahunnya. Pabrik tersebut merupakan salah satu dari 10 pabrik susu terbesar di dunia. Selain untuk memenuhi pasar Indonesia, pabrik susu tersebut mampu memenuhi pasar di Asia Tenggara, baik dalam bentuk susu cair maupun terlebih lagi susu bubuk. Itulah sebabnya kebutuhan susu segar bagi pabrik tersebut meningkat. Ini merupakan kesempatan terbuka bagi para petani susu kita jika mereka mampu untuk memenuhinya.Kesempatan inilah yang memungkinkan dilakukannya investasi baru bagi pengembangan ternak sapi susu dalam skala lebih besar.

Kita mengetahui, investasi baru juga dilakukan pabrik motor Honda yang akan membangun pabrik motor baru dengan kapasitas setengah juta unit pada 2010. Pembangunan pabrik tersebut untuk mengantisipasi kenaikan permintaan sepeda motor di Indonesia pada tahun-tahun mendatang. Jika pada saat ini kapasitas produksi Honda per tahun mencapai 3,1 juta motor, dengan pabrik baru tersebut kemampuan produksi akan meningkat menjadi 3,6 juta unit. Saya yakin, kapasitas baru tersebut tidak akan berumur panjang karena permintaan motor diperkirakan meningkat lagi di tahuntahun mendatang.Sebelumnya peresmian ekspansi pabrik truk Hino juga dilakukan akibat peningkatan kebutuhan truk.

Perusahaan mobil Volkswagen juga berencana memasuki pasar Indonesia dengan membuat pabrik pada 2012. Di industri hulu, PT Mandar Steel, yang merupakan perusahaan patungan dengan China,berencana membangun pabrik baru di Kalimantan dengan investasi sekitar USD225 juta untuk pabrik dengan kapasitas setengah juta ton baja. Rencananya pada 2012 pabrik tersebut akan diperluas lagi sehingga total investasinya mencapai sekitar USD1 miliar. PT Meratus Iron and Steel, yang merupakan perusahaan patungan antara Krakatau Steel dan Aneka Tambang, juga berencana membangun pabrik baja di Kalimantan Selatan.

Dengan berbagai investasi di berbagai industri manufaktur tersebut, saya sering dibingungkan dengan istilah deindustrialisasi yang dikatakan terjadi di Indonesia. Istilah tersebut muncul karena beberapa hal.Pertama,tingkat pertumbuhan riil sektor manufaktur selalu tertinggal dibandingkan tingkat pertumbuhan ekonomi secara keseluruhan. Sebagai akibatnya, sharesektor industri pengolahan dalam produk domestik bruto (PDB) juga ikut menurun.Portofolio perkreditan industri perbankan di Indonesia juga menunjukkan porsi yang menurun bagi industri pengolahan sehingga hal ini membawa dampak pada penurunan investasi di industri pengolahan.

Dari berbagai cerita tentang pembangunan pabrik baru yang dikemukakan di atas, tampak benar bahwa sektor industri pengolahan sebetulnya masih bergerak dan bahkan bergerak cepat.Unilever Indonesia pada 2008 tumbuh riil sekitar 12%. Bahkan pada 2009, pertumbuhan riil lebih tinggi lagi.Melihat pangsa pasar mereka yang hanya sedikit meningkat, ini berarti perusahaan di industri serupa juga tumbuh tinggi. Kita juga melihat industri automotif, mobil dan motor, yang tumbuh sangat tinggi sehingga untuk Januari 2010 yang lalu sudah mengalahkan penjualan bulanan Thailand dan Malaysia. Sementara itu, dengan mudah kita saksikan pertumbuhan konsumsi dalam PDB kita.

Jika terjadi proses deindustrialisasi, pastilah impor barang konsumsi jadi (bukan bahan baku) akan mendominasi impor kita dan harus memiliki pertumbuhan absolut yang lebih tinggi dibandingkan kenaikan absolut konsumsi kita.Ternyata hal tersebut tidak terjadi. Pertumbuhan konsumsi dalam PDB tidaklah diikuti kenaikan impor barang jadi, melainkan bahan baku. Ini berarti untuk bisa dikonsumsi, bahan baku tersebut harus diolah terlebih dahulu.Inilah yang terjadi dalam industri pengolahan. Rasanya ada yang kurang benar dalam statistik kita yang bersifat sektoral.

Ada baiknya ketidakkonsistenan ini diatasi dengan suatu studi yang lebih intensif sehingga data yang muncul lebih benar. Jika ini terjadi, kebijakan yang dihasilkan akan lebih akurat. Ringkasnya, saya sungguh tidak percaya bahwa telah terjadi proses deindustrialisasi. Dari anecdotal evidence, pertumbuhan industri pengolahan justru sangat tinggi. (*)

Cyrillus Harinowo Hadiwerdoyo
Pengamat Ekonomi(//rhs)

pelan-pelan saja: euro in a critical moment BEFORE THE CRISES... 080310

Will Europe's Financial Problems Spread?



Ron DeLegge, On Monday March 1, 2010, 2:06 pm EST
SAN DIEGO (ETFguide.com) - Few moments in economic history have been as big or as important as January 1st, 1999. It was then that the euro dollar made its debut on the world scene. Former currencies like the French franc, Italian lira, and German Deutsche Mark were out. The euro dollar was in.

Convincing a melting pot of countries, each with distinct financial histories and cultures, to adopt a common currency wasn't easy. But eventually, it became the shared view that the power of a few would become the power of many.

Today, just a few short months after flirting with invincibility, the euro is in crisis.

Greece's deficit soared to 12.7% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2009. That's well above the European Union's 3% ceiling and even beyond debt levels of countries that recently suffered economic crisis like Argentina and Russia.

Will Europe's economic problems be contained to problem countries or will they spread throughout the region? And what impact will these issues have on the rest of the global economy?

From Top to Bottom

In the Q4 2009, the euro dollar (NYSEArca: FXE - News) climbed to 14-month highs versus the U.S. dollar and the only thing preventing it from going higher was the moon. At that time it was the popular view that the euro was well on its way to overtaking the sagging greenback as the world's reserve currency. A few short months later, the Euro-zone looks like a dysfunctional coalition of members each with their own financial agenda.

If Europe couldn't win the war of worldwide currency supremacy with a strong euro can they win it with a weakened one?

Structural Flaws

Currently, there are a total of 16 countries using the euro dollar; Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Ireland, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Slovakia, and Slovenia.

George Soros suggests the euro dollar is in deep trouble because of its structural flaws. In an editorial piece written for the Financial Times, he argued even if Greece gets a financial bailout, other problem spots like Ireland, Italy, Portugal, and Spain still loom. And the financial problems of these other countries could prove too much to overcome.

A principal flaw of the euro, according to Soros, is its lack of a central Treasury agency. While central banks can inject more liquidity into troubled financial systems, only a Treasury can handle with problems of solvency.

In 1992, Soros scored more than $1 billion in speculating profits by shorting the British pound (NYSEArca: FXB - News).

Contagion, the 'C' word

Europe's monetary system is a textbook example of contagion. By virtue of the fact that they use the same currency, each of the 16 member nations are so intertwined with each other that their financial victories and failures are essentially shared. If you think it's a difficult feat trying to get one country to correctly fire on all economic cylinders, you ought to try 16!

Here's what ETFguide's Weekly Pick/Pan wrote on January 20th: 'FXE shares closed at $140.78 and financial contagion is a huge factor for the euro because one country's financial woes become the problem of other Union members.'

So far in 2010, the stock market doesn't like what it sees. After recording a handsome 32.04% return last year, the Vanguard European ETF (NYSEArca: VGK - News) is already down 6.79% year-to-date. Single country ETFs within the region like France (NYSEArca: EWQ - News), Germany (NYSEArca: EWG - News) and Spain (NYSEArca: EWP - News) are performing even worse.

What about bonds? Currently, there aren't any U.S. listed ETFs that focus specifically on bonds from troubled countries like Greece or Spain. But the SPDR Barclays Capital International Treasury Bond ETF (NYSEArca: BWX - News) has around 50% of its exposure to European Union countries. Greece and Spain represent a small slice of total exposure. Thus far, BWX is down just 1.22% for the year.

What Now?

While sovereign debt defaults are indeed problematic, bailing out troubled euro-zone countries isn't far behind. The fragile state of the global economy makes either scenario quite dangerous, but what are the alternatives?

Don't underestimate the significance of Europe's financial problems on the rest of the world.

The eurois the second largest reserve currency and is used daily by some 325 million Europeans. According to IMF 2008 GDP estimates, the Euro-zone is the second largest economy in the world.

What would a total collapse of the euro dollar mean to the rest of the world? Will it be contained? Or will it ignite a global currency crisis?

pelan-pelan saja: negara adidaya UTANK ...070310

Siapa Penguasa Terbesar Obligasi Amerika
Selain Federal Reserve, China dan Jepang adalah dua negara terbesar investor obligasi AS.
MINGGU, 7 MARET 2010, 10:38 WIB
Heri Susanto

Gedung Putih di Washington DC Amerika Serikat (AP Photo)
BERITA TERKAIT
Menkeu: Utang Rp 600 Triliun Itu Kecil
2010, Utang Jatuh Tempo Pemerintah Rp 64 T
Tahun Depan APBN Butuh Utang Rp 236 Triliun
Akhir 2009, Rasio Utang RI 31% PDB
Menkeu: 2004 Bangkrut, Sekarang RI Kaya Raya
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VIVAnews - Krisis finansial global telah mengakibatkan jumlah utang negara dengan kekuatan ekonomi terbesar di dunia melonjak. Saat ini, jumlah utang AS diperkirakan sudah mendekati US$ 14 triliun dan terus meningkat setiap hari.

Bagi investor, berbagai jenis surat berharga yang diterbitkan oleh pemerintah AS sangat menarik. Selain dijamin oleh pemerintah Amerika plus tingkat bunga, surat berharga yang diterbitkan oleh Amerika merupakan surat utang paling menentukan di dunia.

Surat utang itu dipegang oleh berbagai institusi untuk investasi, baik lembaga keuangan, pemerintah negara dan perusahaan. Berikut ini perinciannya, seperti dimuat oleh CNBC akhir Februari lalu.

1. Federal Reserve
Federal Reserve adalah pemegang terbesar surat utang pemerintah AS. Bank sentral AS dan lembaga terkait memiliki sekitar US$ 5,127 triliun surat berharga AS.

2. Investor
Investor ini sangat beragam, mulai dari individu, broker, properti dan berbagai jenis perusahaan menginvestasikan dana di surat berharga AS sekitar US$ 1,11 triliun.

3. Jepang
Mitra dagang AS, Jepang merupakan investor besar surat berharga AS, bahkan sudah melewati China dengan kepemilikan sekitar US$ 768,8 miliar.

4. China
China sebelumnya merupakan pemegang besar surat berharga AS, bahkan pernah mencapai US$ 801 miliar pada Mei 2009. Namun, belakangan diperkirakan sudah terpangkas sekitar US$ 45 miliar.

5. Pengelola Reksa Dana
Pengelola Reksa Dana, merupakan pemegang terbesar kelima surat berharga Amerika. Jumlahnya duperkirakan US$ 694 miliar.

6. Negara Bagian
Negara bagian AS dan pemerintah lokal tergolong pemilik besar surat utang AS. Menurut catatan Federal Reserver, selama tiga tahun terakhir, kepemilikan mereka berkisar antara US$ 516 - 550 miliar.

7. Dana Pensiun
Dana Pensiun, termasuk pengelola dana pensiun swasta dan pemerintah lokal AS memiliki US$ 490 miliar.

8. Inggris
Inggris saat ini mengendalikan US$ 277 miliar surat utang AS. Namun, selama dua tahun terakhir kepemilikan Inggris sangat berfluktuasi.

9. Pusat Bank Karibia
Departemen Keuangan AS juga mengidentifikasi grup institusi keuangan di Kepulauan Bahama, Bermuda, Cayman Islands, Panama, British Virgin Islands. Mereka memiliki US$ 179,8 miliar, namun turun dibandingkan Maret 2009 sebesar US$ 213 miliar.

10. Asuransi
Perusahaan asuransi memiliki US$ 162,2 miliar di surat Itu mencakup perusahaan asuransi properti dan asuransi jiwa.

11. Brazil
Raksasa ekonomi Amerika Latin, Brazil memiliki US$ 157,1 miliar. Investasi Brazil berfluktuasi dalam dua tahun terakhir.

12. Hong Kong
Negara ini masuk dalam jajaran 15 pemegang surat utang AS tersebut, bahkan jumlahnya melonjak 50 persen dari US$ 99,8 miliar pada Juni 2009 menjadi US$ 146,2 miliar saat ini.

13. Eksportir Minyak
Eksportir minyak termasuk investor besar utang AS, sekiar. Ini termasuk eksportir minyak asal Ekuador, Venezuela, Indonesia, Bahrain, Iran, Irak, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Arab Saudi, Uni Emirat Arab, Algeria, Libya dan Nigeria.

14. Perbankan
Seperti dilaporkan Dewan Gubernur Federal Rerserve pada kuartal ketiga, lembaga keuangan perbankan memegang obligasi AS sekitar US$ 145 miliar.

15. Rusia
Investasi Rusia di obligasi Amerika naik 393 persen dari Januari 2008 ke Maret 2009, yakni dari US$ 35,2 miliar menjadi US$ 138,4 miliar. Namun, pada November 2009 turun sedikit menjadi US$ 128,1 miliar.

• VIVAnews

pelan-pelan saja: pulih itu TIDAK MUDAH bneren abis ...070310

Sarkozy Says EU Must Back Greece or Put Monetary Union at Risk
March 06, 2010, 7:03 PM EST
MORE FROM BUSINESSWEEK

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By John Fraher and Lorenzo Totaro
March 7 (Bloomberg) -- French President Nicolas Sarkozy said the European Union must support Greece or risk destroying the euro as Prime Minister George Papandreou heads for Paris to lobby support for the debt-laden country.
“If we created the euro, we cannot let a country fall that is in the eurozone,” said Sarkozy yesterday before a meeting with Papandreou in Paris today. “Otherwise there was no point in creating the euro. We must support Greece because they are making an effort.”
EU leaders have so far refused to give financial aid to Greece and have ordered the government to cut its budget deficit, the EU’s highest, on its own. While Papandreou says steps taken this past week to slash the shortfall warrant more help from the EU, German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle said yesterday that his country is “not going to write a blank check.”
Papandreou is touring Luxembourg, Berlin, Paris and Washington after his government passed a 4.8 billion euro ($6.5 billion) austerity package on March 5. German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who met him yesterday, said the question of a bailout “absolutely doesn’t arise” and the steps taken to cut the deficit make her optimistic that a rescue won’t be needed.
Sarkozy, who didn’t say financial support would be forthcoming, will meet Papandreou in the Elysee Palace around 6 p.m. local time. They will brief reporters afterwards.
Merkel is rebuffing any talk of a rescue even as EU nations are said to be working on a contingency bailout plan for Greece to be funded by member governments. Greece sold 5 billion euros of bonds on March 4, with investor demand more than three times the offering, the day after Papandreou announced the package of tax increases and spending cuts.
Bond Sale
The 6.25 percent bonds Greece sold rose to about 99.4 cents on the euro to yield 6.32 percent, compared with an issue price of 98.94 cents, according to EFG Eurobank Trading prices on Bloomberg. The risk premium that investors demand to buy Greek bonds over comparable German debt, the European benchmark, fell 4 basis points to 293 basis points.
Papandreou is indicating that Greece may still need financial support and is prepared to turn to the IMF if necessary, calling it a “final resort” on March 3.
That prompted a rebuff from European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet a day later as finance officials fret such a move would signal the EU isn’t capable of solving its own problems. Italian Finance Minister Giulio Tremonti is nevertheless refusing to rule out a role for the IMF in any aid package.
IMF Role
“The IMF should act as a bank” in any rescue, he told reporters in Venice yesterday. “We finance the IMF so it can use the funds around the world. Why not use that capital with the IMF acting as a bank with its know-how?”
Tremonti also said that the EU could also issue “eurobonds” or coordinated the sale of euro-denominated government bonds to better counter “financial speculation.”
As Greece calls for more help, Merkel on March 5 turned her focus to restricting the use of derivatives to halt “speculators” from exploiting countries’ budget deficits. Greece has done its work and Europe and the U.S. must now ensure that financial-market speculators aren’t allowed to inflict further damage on Greece or on other countries, she said.
“Credit-default swaps, where you insure your neighbor’s house just to destroy it and make money from it, that’s exactly what we have to curb,” Merkel said at a joint press conference in Berlin yesterday with Papandreou.
The Greek prime minister said he will fight to ensure speculators don’t undermine his push to restore order to the country’s economy. It’s unjust and undemocratic that his efforts are being undermined “by some ‘kids’ in New York and elsewhere sitting in front of a computer,” he said yesterday.
Speaking in Venice, French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde said today that credit-default swaps “need to be much more and much better regulated.”
--With assistance from Heather Smith in Paris, Jim Neuger in Cordoba, Spain, Ben Moshinsky in Brussels and Philipp Encz and Brian Parkin in Berlin. Editors: Michael Shanahan, Randall Hackley

pelan-pelan saja: pulih itu TIDAK MUDAH bneren ...070310

Volcker Says Too Soon to Cut U.S. Monetary, Fiscal Stimulus
March 06, 2010, 6:04 PM EST
MORE FROM BUSINESSWEEK

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Sarkozy Says EU Must Back Greece or Put Monetary Union at Risk
Volcker Says Too Soon to Cut U.S. Monetary, Fiscal Stimulus
NFL Films’ Sabol Says Manning Near Coronation as All-Time Best
Iceland Rejects Icesave Bill in Referendum, Early Results Show

By Rainer Buergin and Philipp Encz
March 7 (Bloomberg) -- White House adviser Paul Volcker said it’s too soon for U.S. policy makers to withdraw the stimulus measures and interest-rate cuts used to fight the worst slump since the Great Depression.
“This is not the time to take aggressive tightening action, either fiscally or monetary-wise,” said Volcker in an interview in Berlin yesterday, pointing to “high” unemployment. “So I think we have to, as best as we can, maintain the expectation that it will be taken care of in a timely way.”
The Federal Reserve and the Treasury are trying to withdraw the emergency measures introduced during the financial crisis without causing a relapse in the economy. Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said Feb. 24 the U.S. is in a “nascent” recovery that still requires keeping interest rates near zero “for an extended period” to spur demand once stimulus wanes.
At the same time, the Treasury’s resources are under strain from the loss of 8.4 million jobs since December 2007, stimulus spending, wars in Afghanistan and Iraq and health care programs. The Obama administration predicts the budget deficit will swell to a record $1.6 trillion in the fiscal year ending Sept. 30.
Volcker, who wrote the blueprint for banking proposals that President Barack Obama sent to Congress last week, said U.S. lawmakers must now prove they can pass the “comprehensive” legislation needed to prevent another financial crisis.
Test
“That is the test,” said Volcker. “Congress has not been very good at passing any comprehensive legislation in various areas.” Banking rules “shouldn’t be a matter of partisan dispute. But everything seems to be infected by partisan disputes in the U.S. now.”
The so-called Volcker Rule bans banks from hazardous trading and imposes limits on how large they can grow. Obama’s plan faces resistance in Congress. Lawmakers including Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd have called the plan a political ploy and said it could complicate efforts to overhaul rules governing financial companies.
“There is a lot of lobbying out there on the other side,” Volcker said. Volcker, who hasn’t seen the “precise language” of Obama’s legislation, said he doesn’t believe the bill has been “watered down.”
Asked whether responsibility for consumer protection should be given to the Fed, Volcker said it’s “not really central to the banking supervision question.”
“It is a very important question politically and some people think it’s the most important single element, but I think it’s not an element that’s crucial in terms of my concerns,” he said.
Ingenuity
The former Fed chairman said regulators will have to clearly define proprietary trading when supervising banks.
“The legislation is quite clear that hedge funds and private-equity funds are prohibited for banks and so is proprietary trading, but then you have to interpret,” he said. “Banks are ingenious in saying: ‘Well, this isn’t exactly a hedge fund.’ So the supervisor’s going to have to say: ‘No, sorry, whatever you call it, we call it a hedge fund.’”
Volcker was in Berlin to give a speech to the American Academy and pointed to the “abuse” of derivatives to hide the scale of Greece’s budget deficit as an example highlighting the need for tighter regulation of the securities.
“Surely the recent revelations about the use (and abuse) of complex derivatives in obscuring the extent of Greek financial obligations reinforces the need for greater transparency and less complexity,” Volcker said in his speech yesterday.
--With assistance from Rebecca Christie in Washington. Editors: John Fraher, Mark Rohner
-0- Mar/06/2010 23:01 GMT

pelan-pelan saja: Google Blogger, YOU ARE TOO ARROGANT

my other blog is currently being teased to include AdSense in its blog system. well, in my past experience Google Blogger made a VERY HIGH AND HARD STANDARD for my blog to join the adsense system. I will not be tempted to join the system until blogger lowers its standard to average blog system like mine.

for sure FACEBOOK and TWITTER have beaten the blogger system VERY BADLY

BLOGGER IS DYING FOR SURE

pelan-pelan saja: pulih itu TIDAK MUDAH ...070310

Icelanders reject deal to repay British and Dutch
Wojciech Moskwa
REYKJAVIK
Sat Mar 6, 2010 7:54pm EST



(Reuters) - Icelandic voters vented their fury on Saturday at the bankers and politicians who ruined the economy, overwhelmingly rejecting a $5 billion deal to repay debts to Britain and the Netherlands.

CRISIS IN CREDIT

The outcome of the referendum had not been in doubt since Iceland had recently been offered better repayment terms than those contained in the deal on which residents were voting.

Still, the scale of the "No" vote testified to the anger Icelanders feel a year-and-a-half after their island's economic collapse became a symbol of the global financial crisis.

Results from about half of the votes cast showed more than 93 percent opposed the deal and less than 2 percent supported it. The rest of the ballots were blank or invalid.

Iceland now must go back to the negotiating table with the British and Dutch in the hope of striking a new accord swiftly. The longer it takes, the greater Iceland's financial pain.

Foreign Minister Ossur Skarphethinsson told reporters Britain and the Netherlands had indicated they were willing to hold new talks.

Financial aid has been put on hold during the impasse, which is also threatening to undermine the center-left government of Prime Minister Johanna Sigurdardottir.

"This has no impact on the life of the government. We need to keep going and finish the debate. We have to get an agreement," Sigurdardottir told public television.

Iceland desperately needs to solve the so-called "Icesave" impasse so it can get international aid flowing to its economy, which contracted around 7.7 percent last year and is expected to shrink again in 2010.

The International Monetary Fund and Nordic countries have promised to loan Iceland around $4.5 billion to help it kick-start the economy. But after initial payments, much of the cash is frozen pending resolution of the Icesave debt.

Finance Minister Steingrimur Sigfusson said voters had sent a very clear message about their disappointment and anger.

The referendum, Iceland's first since independence from Denmark in 1944, was forced by the refusal of the country's president to sign a law in January on repayment terms negotiated by the government and approved by parliament.

While polls show Iceland's people believe the debts should be repaid, they bitterly resent being stuck with a bill for the mistakes of a small number of bankers under the watch of foreign governments. The Icesave debts come to more than $15,000 for each one of the 320,000 people on the island.

BANK FAILURES

The debts arose after Iceland's top banks all failed within days of each other in 2008, weighed down by debt and unable to secure credit during the global financial crunch.

About 400,000 savers in Britain and the Netherlands had deposits with one of the banks in Icesave online deposit accounts. The two countries compensated the savers and since then have demanded their money back.

Turnout was high despite freezing rain and howling winds -- not uncommon for March in a country near the Arctic Circle.

A group of several hundred protesters gathered, saying that Iceland should focus on helping its own citizens get through the crisis before repaying foreign obligations.

"No Icesave. No traitors in power. The nation is innocent," read one banner. "Save our homes instead," read another in a loud protest reminiscent of the "pots and pans revolution" which helped bring down the previous government a year ago.

"We want to pay our debts, but we want to do it without going bankrupt," said Steinunn Ragnarsdottir, a pianist who voted in Reykjavik's City Hall with her two-year-old daughter.

Iceland, Britain and the Netherlands started talks on a new deal once it became clear which way Icelanders would vote.

But a deal has proved elusive. Britain and the Netherlands softened terms, offering a variable interest rate instead of the relatively high fixed rate contained in the old Icesave deal. But Reykjavik held out.

Dutch Finance Minister Jan Kees de Jager said he was disappointed there was no agreement yet but that he remained committed to finding a solution.

The Dutch appeared to harden their position by linking the Icesave dispute to Iceland's hopes of joining the European Union. Brussels invited Iceland to accession talks last month.

"I see that accession negotiations are an additional tool to enforce the agreement with Iceland," Dutch Foreign Minister Maxime Verhagen was quoted as saying by the ANP news agency.

The Icesave issue has rekindled anti-EU sentiment in Iceland. Support for membership has been falling and is now opposed by more than half of Icelanders.

(Additional reporting by Daniel Zdolsek in Reykjavik and Ben Berkowitz in Amsterdam, editing by Charles Dick and Ralph Gowling)

pelan-pelan saja: $tron-K ... 070310

Bang for the buck. Finally.

By Colin Barr, senior writerFebruary 2, 2010: 3:51 AM ET


NEW YORK (Fortune) -- No matter what dollar doomsayers might say, the greenback's not done yet.

The U.S. currency rose last week to its highest level in six months, as the economic picture here showed modest improvement while the outlook overseas grew still more muddled.

FacebookDiggTwitterBuzz Up!EmailPrintComment on this story


A robust recovery in the U.S. is far from guaranteed, obviously. Yet currency watchers say the dollar is likely to keep gaining in coming weeks, as European nations deal with urgent fiscal problems and officials in China struggle to keep the fastest-growing big economy from overheating.

"Right now, the market is focused on the negatives in Europe," said Ashraf Laidi, currency strategist at CMC Markets in London. "That's pretty much the opposite of what the situation was last year."

In 2009, the Federal Reserve's trade-weighted dollar index dropped 6%, as the dollar gave back gains it made during the financial crisis of late 2008.

The 2009 selloff came alongside a rapid recovery in the price of commodities such as oil and a bounceback in the value of the euro, which had plummeted during the acute stage of the crisis.

Last year's turnabout got a rise out of dollar bashers such as Peter Schiff, the Connecticut investment adviser who has been warning that the government's profligacy will doom the dollar. He says investors should buy gold instead.

The U.S. government's plan to run a $1.6 trillion budget deficit in its coming fiscal year is raising alarms with the gold crowd and in Washington. But for now, deficit problems in Europe -- particularly in Greece, whose borrowing costs have spiked this year -- are getting more attention in the currency markets.

Traders have been watching the Fed and the European Central Bank for a clue as to which might remove some of its support for the markets first. The betting is that problems such as Greece's will keep the ECB's exit strategy on hold for some time.

"Right now, there are plenty of good reasons to sell the euro and buy dollars," Laidi said.

The reasons to buy dollars include stronger-than-expected economic growth numbers in the U.S., slowing job losses and pressure for the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates from their current level of about zero. All else equal, a rise in interest rates would boost the value of the dollar.

Another factor that has been supporting the dollar lately has been concern about the strength of the economic bounceback in China. Chinese banks unleashed a flood of lending in the first half of 2009, initially fueling an economic surge but lately leading to questions about what policymakers might do to fend off inflation.

The questions about China's economy are important because the country's growth last year is considered a major factor behind the rise in the prices of industrial commodities, not to mention gold. Should Chinese demand weaken as credit grows scarcer, money could move into safe haven currencies such as the dollar and the Japanese yen.

"China has been the guy buying all the stuff," said Laidi. "If that guy gets ill, you're naturally going to wonder who's going to buy the stuff in his place."

None of this is to say the dollar is on a permanent upswing. Americans still can't find enough jobs and the U.S. remains vulnerable to a double-dip recession. At some point, concern in the currency markets will shift stateside.

But for now, the dollar is alive and kicking.

pelan-pelan saja:saat bagus, saat orang LAIN SUSAH ... 070310

Sabtu, 06/03/2010 20:03 WIB
3 Peluang Emas Indonesia Pasca Krisis Global 2008
Luhur Hertanto - detikFinance

Jakarta - Krisis keuangan global yang sedang dalam tahap pemulihan, membuka berbagai peluang emas bagi Indonesia. Kekuatan ekonomi Indonesia yang terbukti stabil menghadapi dampak krisis 2008, adalah modal kuat untuk memanfaatkan peluang tersebut.

Demikian salah satu butir kesimpulan hasil Rakernas Himpunan Pengusaha Muda Indonesia (HIPMI) XIV 2010 di Batam. Rilis kesimpulan yang ditandatangani Ketua HIPMI Erwin Aksa ini detikcom terima melalui surat elektronik, Sabtu (6/3/2010).

"Perusahaan multinasional barat membutuhkan masa pemulihan sekitar 3-5 tahun ke depan. Dalam rentang waktu itu, perusahaan nasional dapat meningkatkan pangsa pasar dalam negeri dan dilanjutkan dengan ekpansi ke pasar internasional,” tegas Erwin.

Pengusaha muda asal Makassar itu lalu mencontohkan peluang dalam bidang keuangan. Pada saat ini perusahaan keuangan multinasional seperti Citibank sedang sibuk melakukan pembenahan internal, maka ini kesempatan bagi Bank Mandiri, BRI dan Bank BNI mengambilalih pangsa pasar Citibank di Indonesia bahkan Asia Tenggara.

Peluang emas lain adalah mengoptimalkan kesepakatan perdanganan bebas antara Cina dan ASEAN. Industri dan perusahaan nasional semakin berkesempatan untuk mengekspor barang dan komoditas produk mereka ke pasar Cina dan Asia Tenggara semakin terbuka lebar.

Demokratisasi politik dan desentralisasi pemerintahan menurut Erwi Aksa juga merupakan peluang emas. Desentralisasi yang efektif dan efisien pasti dapa menjadi pendorong pemerataan pembangunan ke daerah yang pada akhirnya adalah mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi nasional.

Maka sebelum melebarkan sayap ke pasar internasional, hendaknya produsen nasional sebaiknya mendominasi pasar dalam negeri terlebih dahulu. Ukuran pasar Indonesia yang begitu besar menjadikan setiap produsen berpeluang mencapai skala ekonomis yang cukup besar sehingga menurunkan ongkos produksi secara signifikan.

“Hal inilah yang dilakukan Cina secara agresif dalam dua dekade terakhir khususnya setelah menjadi anggota World Trade Organization,” tambah Sekjen HIPMI M Ridwan Mustofa.
(lh/lh)
Merintis Bisnis di Paruh Baya
Thursday, March 4th, 2010
oleh : Eva Martha Rahayu

Merintis bisnis saat krismon 1997 sempat membuatnya limbung. Toh berkat kegigihannya, bisnis yang dirintisnya tumbuh berkembang. Produknya diekspor ke sejumlah negara.
Haruskah berbisnis sejak usia muda? Kalau itu ditanyakan pada Tony Djumadi, jawabannya: tidak. Dia sukses berbisnis justru di masa pensiun. Produk disposable packaging buatannya digunakan sejumlah perusahaan dan merek terkenal. Bagaimana ceritanya?
Tepat di usia 50 tahun, Tony memutuskan beristirahat total dari dunia kerja dan pergi ke Australia untuk menemani sang anak yang sedang kuliah. Namun jangankan menyepi, di Negeri Kanguru itu dia bertemu dengan kawan yang mengajaknya berbisnis kemasan makanan. Dia pun setuju saja, asalkan sang teman yang nantinya menjalankan perusahaan.
Perkongsian bisnis Tony dan kawannya diwujudkan dengan mendirikan PT Pola Paperindo Jayatama (PPJ) tahun 1997. Keduanya penuh semangat. Malang, ketika Tony asyik mengurusi pemesanan mesin dan bahan baku, cobaan menerkam. “Ketika krisis menerpa tahun 1997 teman saya telepon dan mengatakan kondisinya hancur berantakan. ‘Bagaimana ini’?” ujar Tony menirukan ucapan relasinya yang galau. Sementara Tony di Australia, mitranya berada di Jakarta. Akhirnya, kolega bisnisnya itu mundur. Tinggallah Tony menjadi pemegang saham tunggal.
Setelah berdiskusi dengan anak-anaknya, Tony kembali ke Indonesia dan menjalankan PPJ. Di tengah badai krisis, dia yakin prospek bisnis disposable packaging karena sudah melakukan survei lebih dulu sebelum PPJ dibesut. Hasil survei menunjukkan: gaya hidup masyarakat yang kian praktis menuntut konsumsi makanan dan minuman yang dikemas dalam kertas, baik berupa cup, boks, piring ataupun food container. Bahan kertas juga lebih aman, baik untuk kesehatan dan ramah lingkungan.
Bak koin dengan dua sisi, krismon pun dinilai Tony memiliki sisi negatif dan positif. Di satu sisi, daya beli konsumen turun. Namun di sisi lain, peluang terbuka karena banyak pemain disposable packaging yang berguguran. Waktu itu yang tersisa dua-tiga pemain asing dan empat-lima pemain lokal. Jumlah kompetitor yang menyusut itu memberi dorongan positif Tony agar lebih optimistis membesarkan PPJ.
Toh optimismenya mendapat ujian tak ringan. Dengan segala keterbatasan, PPJ mulai memproduksi kemasan kertas berbentuk cup. Namanya juga pabrik, meski kondisi sulit, jumlah karyawannya terbilang banyak, karena kala itu PPJ mempekerjakan 60-75 orang. “Tapi, order sangat susah. Waktu krisis kami benar-benar drop, malah sampai pernah karyawan kerja seminggu hanya dua-tiga hari,” cerita pria kelahiran Malaysia 26 Januari 1947 itu dengan nada pilu. Pabriknya pun cuma sempat jalan dua-tiga hari seminggu. Karyawan masuk bergiliran: shift satu datang, shift dua istirahat, beberapa hari kemudian baru masuk.
Ibarat sudah jatuh tertimpa tangga. Sudah susah cari order, dia pun kelabakan mendapatkan pinjaman bank buat modal kerja. “Mau impor saja, kami buka L/C di luar negeri nggak mau terima meski dari bank BUMN. Jadi, harus berliku-liku. Lari ke Singapura, minta bank Singapura buka, ternyata di sana juga ditolak. Pokoknya banyak sekali kendalanya,” Tony mengisahkan pengalaman pahitnya.
Bagaimana solusinya? Dalam kondisi terimpit, Tony lebih fokus melayani pelanggan. Dengan telaten, pihaknya mendatangi satu per satu pelanggan untuk bicara dari hati ke hati. Kepada pelanggan, dia menanyakan apa saja masalah yang dihadapi mereka. Ada yang mengutarakan kendala harga, masalah teknis, dan desain kemasan. Rupanya, salah seorang pelanggan berterus terang kalau sedang menjalankan program paket hemat (pahe) dengan harga Rp 5 ribu. Pelanggan bertanya bagaimana caranya dengan produk seharga Rp 5 ribu, tetapi tetap bisa menggunakan paper cup. “Oke, kami tahan dulu, sementara rugi nggak apa. Banyaklah kompromi yang kami lakukan saat itu demi menjaga hubungan baik dengan pelanggan,” papar peraih gelar MBA bidang finance dari Indonesian European University itu.
Pengorbanan Tony tidak sia-sia. Seiring berjalannya waktu, dia rajin membangun citra perusahaannya. Dan ketika iklim ekonomi serta dunia usaha berangsur membaik, kondisi bisnis para pelanggan pun pulih. Di luar dugaan, ternyata banyak pelanggan yang loyal. Mereka simpati dengan cara kerja PPJ dan tetap menjalin kerja sama hingga sekarang. Setidaknya hal itu terungkap dari pernyataan Janeley Watson. “Kami sudah lebih dari 10 tahun menjadi klien PPJ. Sejauh ini hanya produk PPJ yang kami gunakan,” ujar Manajer Key Account Nasional PT Coca-Cola Bottling Indonesia itu.
Tony juga proaktif melakukan pengembangan produk. Mantan Manajer Penjualan Nasional PT Guiness Indonesia ini sadar bahwa makin lama kompetitor lokal dan asing kian meningkat. Mereka sama-sama menawarkan rentang produk yang lengkap. Untuk menyiasati, dia tidak alpa getol mengamati perkembangan industri disposable packaging di mancanegara. Makanya, dia bertekad menjadikan PPJ one stop shopping kebutuhan kemasan makanan dan minuman yang terbuat dari kertas impor. Lalu, diluncurkanlah beberapa varian kemasan baru dari kertas.
Jika dulu hanya punya paper cup untuk soft drink, tahun ketiga PPJ sudah masuk ke paper cup untuk es krim, kopi, teh, susu, sampai noodle cup. Karena awalnya hanya menjual produk paper cup, maka merek yang digunakan adalah Polacup. Namun seiring penambahan jumlah rentang produk, selanjutnya merek yang dipakai berubah menjadi Pola, sesuai dengan nama depan perusahaan.
Varian produk yang bertambah makin klop dengan komitmen menjaga mutu. Itulah sebabnya bahan baku kertas yang dipakai selalu kualitas impor. Kertas yang digunakan adalah yang berserat panjang dan itu hanya ada di Amerika Serikat, Eropa serta Kanada. Namun, strategi ini dilematis juga. Sebab, dengan mengandalkan bahan baku impor, Tony dihadapkan pada kendala pasokan yang tidak stabil. Sering jika memesan material sekarang, kiriman baru tiba 6 bulan kemudian. Padahal, pelanggan acap mengorder secara tiba-tiba.
Konsistensi PPJ dalam menghasilkan produk disposable packaging yang bermutu, tidak saja membuat pelanggan makin lengket, melainkan juga mampu menggaet pelanggan baru. Buktinya jumlah klien terus meningkat dari perusahaan bonafide dan multinasional. Kini, sektor bisnis pelanggan PPJ cukup beragam. Mulai dari perusahaan yang bergerak di bidang food & beverage, fastfood, bakery, airlines, sekolah, sampai hotel. Beberapa merek yang mengunakan produk Pola di antaranya Church’s Texas Chicken, A&W, McDonald’s, Secret Recipe, Pizza Hut, Starbucks Coffee, The Coffee Bean & Tea Leaves, Coca-Cola, New Zealand Singapore Airlines, Air Asia, Nestle, Conoco Philips dan CNOOC.
Meski basis pelanggannya lumayan kuat, Tony pantang berperang harga dalam bersaing. “Kami jarang main di pricing, karena sebagai market leader nggak bisa hanya cheap, cheap dan cheap,” tuturnya. Persaingan terletak pada layanan, citra dan jaringan distribusi. Dengan menjaga tiga hal itu, Tony percaya konsumen akan datang sendiri. Sebagai gambaran, harga satu lunch box PPJ sama dengan tiga kali lunch box yang terbuat dari styrofoam. Cukup mahal memang. Pengguna jasanya pun memiliki motivasi sendiri dalam menggunakan produk disposable packaging. Entah itu pertimbangan prestise, kualitas, layanan atau hal lainnya.
Setelah sukses menaklukkan pasar dalam negeri, sejak tahun 2000 PPJ melakukan penetrasi ke pasar luar negeri. Karena itu, produknya diekspor ke Australia, Selandia Baru, Singapura, Taiwan dan Inggris. Sayangnya, ketika produk murah dari Cina mulai masuk lima tahun kemudian, permintaan ekspor PPJ melandai. “Dulu rasio ekspor kami hampir 40%. Tapi, sejak tahun 2005 dengan serbuan produk Cina di pasar dunia, ekspor kami turun,” papar ayah Betty dan Catherine itu.
Sekarang PPJ hanya mengekspor ke Australia dan Eropa. Kendati demikian, Tony lega karena belakangan, pelanggan lama mulai datang kembali. Dia menduga mungkin karena merasa tidak puas dengan layanan dan kualitas dari produk-produk Cina. Namun, dengan keterbatasan kapasitas produksinya, PPJ membatasi maksimum hanya 25% dari produksinya yang diekspor. “Karena terlalu banyak ekspor belum tentu menguntungkan. Apalagi pasar domestik merupakan andalan yang harus dijaga,” imbuh Ketua Yayasan Lions Indonesia yang hobi membaca ini.
Dengan jangkauan pasar yang melebar, berapa omset PPJ? Sayang, tampaknya Tony alergi bicara angka-angka. Dia cuma mengaku, dalam tiga tahun terakhir pertumbuhan PPJ mencapai dua digit. Yang jelas, PPJ tetap konsisten menggeluti dunia disposable packaging. “Makanya tahun 2010 akan ada mesin baru lagi yang masuk,” ucap pengusaha yang kini mempekerjakan 150 karyawan tetap dan 100 pegawai kontrak itu sembari tertawa. Maklum, dua pabrik PPJ di Cengkareng seluas 1.500 m2 sekarang sudah full capacity.
Para pelanggan optimistis masa depan PPJ prospektif. Pasalnya, “PPJ mempunyai tiga keunggulan. Pertama, memiliki mesin forming yang cukup baik, sehingga hasil forming-nya pun sempurna, produk jadinya jarang yang bocor atau rusak. Kedua, lokasi pabrik dan gudangnya masih di Jakarta, sehingga pengiriman barang lebih cepat. Delivery lebih cepat dan mudah. Ketiga, harga yang ditawarkan cukup kompetitif,” papar Temmy Karjadi, Manajer Pengembangan Bisnis Popeyes Lousiana Kitchen & Sate Khas Senayan. Dengan ketiga kekuatan itu, dia yakin PPJ akan memimpin pasar. Tiap bulan kedua resto yang menjadi pelanggan sejak tahun 2001 itu dipasok PPJ berupa paper cup berbagai ukuran, cup sup, dan cup es krim dengan jumlah 50-8.000 pieces.
Pendapat Janeley menguatkan soal kompetensi PPJ. “Yang pasti PPJ reliable, kualitas sesuai dengan standar kami dan timnya juga kooperatif,” katanya memuji. Arti kooperatif di sini, menurut Janeley, umpan baliknya cepat. Sebab, kadang-kadang Coca-Cola mengorder di luar kebiasaan, minta cepat dan deadline-nya juga mepet. “PPJ itu willing to help walaupun mereka sedang penuh atau antre. Untuk support itu kami dapatkan dari PPJ,” tambahnya seraya mengaku jumlah pesanan saban bulan tidak sama, tergantung kebutuhan.
Jadi, siapa takut bisnis di usia paruh baya?
Reportase: Wini Angraeni

pelan-pelan saja: pengangguran MUSUH EKONOMI di mana pun

Originally published 09:32 a.m., March 4, 2010, updated 09:34 a.m., March 4, 2010
Jobless claims drop; productivity revised higher

Christopher S. Rugaber ASSOCIATED PRESS

New claims for jobless benefits fell last week in a sign that layoffs may be easing as the economy slowly recovers.

The Labor Department said Thursday that initial claims for unemployment insurance fell by 29,000 to a seasonally adjusted 469,000. That nearly matches Wall Street analysts' estimates of 470,000.

Still, any improvement in the job market is likely to be slow, as companies are reluctant to add workers. Last week's drop only partly reverses a sharp rise in claims in the previous two weeks.

The four-week average of claims, which smooths out volatility, fell by 3,500 to 470,750. Despite the drop, the average has risen by about 20,000 since the beginning of the year.

Initial claims are considered a gauge of the pace of layoffs and an indication of companies' willingness to hire new workers. But they have been volatile in recent weeks as last month's severe snowstorms in the Northeast have distorted the data.

Claims rose sharply two weeks ago partly because several states processed a backlog of claims that had built up from previous weeks when government offices closed because of bad weather. No states reported backlogs this week, a Labor Department analyst said.

"It might be another couple of weeks until we get a clear picture of where claims are settling in," said Conrad DeQuadros, an economist at RDQ Economics.

In another sign that companies are raising output without adding many jobs, the department said in a separate report that productivity rose by 6.9 percent in the fourth quarter, higher than analysts' expectations of a 6.3 percent rise.

While higher productivity, or output per hour worked, raises living standards in the long run, it also enables companies to get by with fewer workers.

Separately, shoppers shrugged off the snow to buy spring clothing and other items last month, resulting in solid sales gains for many retailers.

A broad array of merchants, from luxury retailer Nordstrom to midbrow Macy's Inc. and Limited Brands Inc. and discounter Target Corp., reported rising sales on Thursday that beat Wall Street analysts' estimates. The gains came in the face of a decline in consumer confidence.

The Federal Reserve said in a report earlier this week that the recovery is plodding ahead but not at a strong enough pace to persuade companies to ramp up hiring.

The jobs market "remained soft throughout the nation," the Fed said Wednesday in a report known as the Beige Book.

The Labor Department will issue the February employment report Friday, and economists expect the unemployment rate rose to 9.8 percent from 9.7 percent as employers cut 50,000 jobs. The snowstorms likely inflated the job losses by up to 100,000, economists say.

After growing at a 5.9 percent rate at the end of 2009, many economists believe the recovery lost steam in the first months of this year. They predict the economy will grow at a pace of about 3 percent from January to March.

High unemployment likely will slow the recovery as it reduces consumers' ability to spend. The economy has lost 8.4 million jobs since the recession began. The Fed expects unemployment to average 9.5 percent to 9.7 percent this year.

The number of people continuing to claim jobless benefits, meanwhile, fell more than expected to 4.5 million, according to Thursday's report.

But the so-called continuing claims do not include millions of people who have used up the regular 26 weeks of benefits typically provided by states and are receiving extended benefits for up to 73 additional weeks, paid for by the federal government.

Nearly 5.9 million people were receiving extended benefits in the week ended Feb. 13, the latest data available, up from about 5.7 million the previous week. The extended benefit data isn't seasonally adjusted and is volatile from week to week.

The Senate on Tuesday approved legislation to continue those extended benefits through March, after Sen. Jim Bunning, Kentucky Republican, dropped his objection. Mr. Bunning had argued the cost of the benefits should be paid for rather than added to the deficit.

The Senate still is working on legislation that would continue the extra benefits through the end of the year.